Nick's Preseason Power Rankings 2015

Henry David Thoreau once wrote, “Go confidently in the direction of your dreams. Live the life you have imagined.”

I hold that quote especially close to my heart this time of year. We’re nearing the end of another year, and as we press on against the tides we also reflect on where we are in comparison to where we wish to go. Are you where you want to be? Are you taking the steps to get there? These are questions we must ask ourselves as we look ahead. Sometimes our path is laid bare before us, other times we ourselves are the only ones who see such a road, and we must go it alone. This is also true in Fantasy Football. 

As Jim Nantz would say, “Hello, friends.”

In Fantasy, we all see different things. We all want to hoist that beautiful trophy upon the mountaintops and scream in victory, but there are many tests that await us. We must take the teams that we have assembled today and press on with confidence. We will make changes, we will lose hope, but we must always press on. We must do our best to live the season that we have imagined for ourselves.

This is our first Power Rankings of the season, and damn have I been waiting to deliver it to you. Be careful, it’s hot. I myself do not place teams in order by my own opinion, I have tools and statistics to do that for me. No, instead, I’m the guy that will tear you down to your core. You will hate me, and I’ll just dish some more out the next week. Such is the matter of The Captain’s League.

This season, I took everyone’s team as of 8:54pm Pacific Standard Time on Sunday, August 23^rd, 2015, and entered them into 2 spots: Footballguys.com’s “Rate my team” tool, and FantasyPros’ “My Playbook.” Each site works a little differently. FootballGuys’ analyzes positional strengths and weaknesses and gives me a team’s chances of making playoffs based on how well that manage throughout the season (i.e. Are you on top of the Waiver Wire? Do you make a trade to better yourself?). I took those percentages and placed everyone in order of their likelihood to make playoffs.

FantasyPros takes everyone’s starting roster and determines your strength at each position (for instance, Corey has the best RB1 in Adrian Peterson, but the worst starting QB in the league with Sam Bradford). From there it ranks the teams for me. I then take the 2 rankings given and average it out to create the final preseason Power Ranking. Since FantasyPros’ approach is a little more finicky (as it doesn’t take depth into account), I’ve favored Footballguys’ ranking in case of a tiebreaker.

Now that that explanation is out of the way that you probably didn’t read, I need to add a little disclaimer: This is based purely off preseason rankings and has no affect on whether or not you’ll make playoffs. Hell, it doesn’t even do a good job of predicting. Per the Nick Brown Bureau of statistics, no one ranked above 9^th in the Preseason ranking has ever won a championship. This ranking literally means nothing (except the oh-so-sweet bragging rights). Now buckle up! It’s time for some Fantasy Football Rankings.

1.) Curtis Smith (Fantasy Pros #1; 90% with Great Management, 85% with Good Management, 78% with Average Management)

Curtis drafts well, we all know this to be true. Year after year we look back and say “Man, how did Curtis get all those guys and not make playoffs?”

Well, it’s a combination of things, really. Part of it is Curtis’ horrible, horrible luck. Seriously, I’m terrified when he goes outside because I half expect a piano to drop on top of him. This guy always seems to have someone big get hurt, but there’s another downside to Curtis’ fantasy career…

He just gives up. Honestly. If Curtis cared about fantasy football half as much as Donald Trump cares about deportation then he’d be a 2-time Champion. And you can quote me on that.

Curtis’ team is good. I mean damn good. I’ve never seen a 90% with these rankings before. He has depth at every position, and has a few pieces that could become diamonds in the coming months. Just enough risk to get butterflys, but enough safety that you could fall asleep on the subway knowing that you wont wake up traumatized. I love it, and I hate that I love it. But that’s ok, because Curtis will forget to set his lineup at some point anyways.

I’m not in love with Matt Ryan, but he’ll hold his own, just as CJ Anderson and Mark Ingram should. I don’t think either finish top 5, but they’ll have numbers. If Calvin returns to form then you straight up stole him in the 2^nd round. And Jordan Mathews will be running so many plays in Philly that he’ll make top 20 as long as he has hands to catch with. Smart picks all around. And luckily for Curtis’ short attention span, this team has a better chance of making playoffs if he doesn’t touch his lineup than most teams in the league do if they’re on top of their game. Amazing stuff.

Believe it or not, Curtis floated around 4^th his first 2 years in the league, with participation being the biggest thing that kept him out of playoffs for all these years. He laughs when it’s brought up but at some point the guy has to take it seriously, right? I mean, one year we literally named his team PROBATION and he never changed it.

Curtis, no matter what happens

A word of warning, Curtis. According to my stats, a Smith has NEVER been ranked #1 for more than 2 consecutive weeks, so good luck redirecting that train.

I’d love to just wreck your team, Curt, but I’m a fan. I just hope you stick around long enough to see something come of it.

2.) Matt Smith (Fantasy Pros #5, 85% with Great Management, 75% with Good Management, 66% with Average Management)

I think we can all agree that this is one of the biggest surprises in the history of the Power Rankings. Mr. I Like To Draft Hurt Players and Not Know Their Names has somehow found his way into the 2-spot. I pulled up the Power Rankings and this is Matt’s HIGHEST RANKING EVER (OK, it’s a tie, but still).

What happened? Has Matt started paying attention? Was Matt tired of being the butt of many a joke within this pages? Has the space in Matt’s brain that was meant for dishwashing skills filled in with knowledge of fantasy football draft analysis?

Somebody had to say it.

We’ll never know, but while he’s up here, let’s congratulate him! Good job, Matt! Way to go! Maybe this is the year where you don’t have a game where you score less than 55 points! The possibilities are endless!

But really, you made some great picks. I definitely noticed a new Matt walk into that room with non-ESPN rankings and a chip on his shoulder. Let’s take a look at some of those picks:

Matt Forte? Believe it or not, but he’s the only player to be on EVERY SINGLE championship team in our league’s history. That has to bode well, right?

Julio? You know he’s going to be sick from getting all those targets, just like Brandin Cooks and Greg Olsen.

Tony Romo? He’s not flashy, but he’ll give at least 10 to Dez and a handful to Jason Witten. Can’t hate that. Don’t get me wrong, he’s no Andrew Luck or Aaron Rodgers, but you can’t hate Tony Romo. Let me just ask you one quick question:

Did you mail in your last 5 picks? Did the guy you paid to draft early on bail out because you couldn’t afford him for the full 16 rounds? I mean, Brian Quick? Vernon Davis? Jameis? At least have the dignity to take somebody with upside.

With that being said, you really picked up a solid group here, Matty Ice. Best of luck beating Corey for superiority in the condo.

3.) Nick Brown – Laced Jam (FantasyPros #4, 85% with Great Management, 75% with Good Management, 66% with Average Management)

If you noticed, Matt and I were actually tied in Footballguys’ percentages, but I put him first because it’s good for the kid’s ego. In the past people have complained that I’m so harsh on every team except for my own, so I think I might just take that to the next level this year. Let’s get to yours, truly.

Me?

I don’t even need to say this, but we can expect some great management this year out of Nicky B because that’s what he does. Have you seen this dude? He starts doing mock drafts in July. You can’t phase him when it comes to fantasy football. He went to Walmart and bought a $15 white board JUST so he could have a “Draft Board.”

You know what else he’s good at? Choking. I mean, come on. It’s choke city over at the condo on Buffalo, population: Nicholas James Tiberious Brown. Nick has NEVER finished the regular season on anything better than a 1-win streak. He has never finished below 3^rd on the end of season Power Ranking and yet he’s yet to win a championship. Your boy is 1-2 in the playoffs despite having a (.641) win percentage. Some people can’t handle the pressure.

Still, he’s posted another top-3 team post-draft, and by mixing up the strategy this year by going RB first, it could be the change he needs. Is this team risky? You betcha, but let’s just say that it’s ready to slam…

4.) Rank This (FantasyPros #2, 80% with Great Management, 70% with Good Management, 59% with Average Management)

I’m not even going to dignify this spot with his real name because all he will ever be is a victim of the rankings. Since day 1 in this league he has bragged about his lack of mock drafts, smart picks, and knowledge as he chugged along at the top of the league.

One year these same rankings found him at #10, and if you read above then you know that I don’t sit here and set the rankings off my own opinion. No, I use expert rankings, and Dave proved those experts wrong. But still we sit, three long years later, and Dave has yet to find an ounce of creativity to name his team something relative to the game in which we play.

My reaction to seeing that stupid name for a third year

Here’s your ranking this year, Dave: 4^th. That’s the top 3^rd of the league and if you’re keeping score at home, a predicted spot in the playoffs for you. FantasyPros was obsessed with you because of your selection of LeVeon Bell, but that’s what I’d hope from the #1 pick.

I should also point out that Dave is 3^rd all-time with a record of 16-10, and that he scores over 100 about 53% of the time. Will that be enough again this year, Dave? Or will you be finding yourself sneaking out of playoffs without your beloved Drew Brees?

Something needs to be said for Dave’s improvement as a GM throughout the years. His draft strategy of “If I’ve heard of them past the 8^th round then they must be good” has somehow paid of in 10-team formats. Dave has gone from being so unpredictable in the first round to finally accepting a top prospect. Will his “Don’t pay attention to anything but the hate” strategy pay off in a larger league where cash is on the line? Or will he fizzle out into mediocrity?

5.) Cheryl (FantasyPros #7, 85% with Great Management, 75% with Good Management, 63% with Average Management)

Every single year I’ve sat here and written about how Cheryl is a second mother to me. I mention how she was always there when I was younger and how her Saturday morning cinnamon rolls will forever be a part of who I am.

I go easy on Cheryl Smith, but now that she’s won a championship and rubbed our faces in it? It’s war.

Cheryl texted me on June 3^rd at 7:39 PM, “Hi Nick. I’m watching ESPN special (sic) on Andrew Luck. I feel like reminding you that you gave me a hard time for drafting him. He was awesome. :D :D :D”

Forgive them, Lord, for they know not what they have done.

My dearest Cheryl,

Need I remind you that last year Andrew Luck was the #2 QB in our league behind Aaron Rodgers? Need I remind you that I gave you a hard time for selecting him a full round above his ADP, despite the fact that I really liked him? Need I remind you that you missed Luck this year? And got stuck with Matthew “My mom tells me I’m elite” Stafford?

My favorite part of last season was seeing you take my scraps to a championship, and the fact that, had Corey not scored 160 points in Week 13 (40 points more than his next best game last year), I’d be hoisting that trophy.

Then, at the rules summit, you were chomping at the bit to have me as your rival, as though I had dedicated this blog to your suffering.

“What does this have to do with Cheryl? Not a lot. But, what I can say is that she is very much in the same boat as her husband. This year has started pretty roughly, but all she needs is for Luck to get his Colts out of this slump. Sure, Luck has been playing pretty damn well, but something in him is going to click and he will become his final form and will become the Top 5 quarterback everyone knows he is.”

The quote above is from the Week 3 Power Rankings last year, when Cheryl was 0-3. She was playing her beloved son Matt who told me that he “wanted her to cry” in her loss to him. I was on your side, Cheryl. I was on your side last season. And then you decided to make an enemy of me.

Well, Cheryl, the good news is that you get me week 1. Our teams may change between now and then, but I openly accept the challenge and any text messages it may bring.

You know the difference between you and I, Cheryl? I respect you as an opponent, and I have no time for mercy on those who do not respect me.

6.) Fast Eddie (FantasyPros #3, 65% with Great Management, 50% with Good Management, 30% with Average Management)

Welcome aboard, Eddie! Let me start this one by apologizing in advance. You’ve never done me any wrong, but these rankings might be rough for you.

“OK, Nick!” You might be saying, upset that you landed in the middle of the pack. “This sure is rough!”

But you haven’t seen the brutality of these rankings yet. Shall we begin?

If you read above, you may note that last year I gave Cheryl a hard time for drafting Andrew Luck too early. Well let me tell ya, the 1^st round takes that sentiment to a whole new level. “But Nick!” you say, confused. “Cheryl won last year! I know because she put her name in my phone as ‘I beat Nick :D :D :D.’”

That’s true, Eddie, and I’m glad you’ve been reading up on your history, but here’s another lesson for you: Cheryl averages a power ranking of 5.7, and that’s the bottom half of the league. You’d do well not to follow her.

Eddie making his first pick

I must say though, for your first draft I’m pleasantly surprised. Are there weak spots? Sure, but you knew the road you wanted to take and you took off running. You have potentially the best fantasy QB in the league, the 2^nd best TE, and the best kicker! Nice work! Now as the year goes on, keep an eye out for a running back that you might start, or perhaps a nice receiver to backup ol’ TY Hilton.

I won’t lie to you, I hate your running backs. Carlos Hyde is a sack of fat behind some more worthless sacks of fat. He’ll get fed and fed and fed and get some decent numbers, but make sure to look for someone to replace him.

Before I go, Eddie, and you embark on your first fantasy journey, I should give you a little piece of advice: Have fun and don’t quit. You never know who could become a top 5 player. Good luck.

7.) Bobby B (FantasyPros #6, 75% with Great Management, 60% with Good Management, 46% with Average Management)

Bobby B is probably wondering why he fell below Eddie even though he has a 10% better chance of making playoffs. Well, it’s because FantasyPros only views your team as average, that’s why.

I’d try to dispute it, but other than putting together my 2 best players from last year, you fall to 8^th or below in every other skill position except FLEX. Alfred Morris has been a fantasy RB2 his entire career and he currently sits as your RB1, which would be fine if you were stacked at WR. But other than my boy Tony Toe Tap, you have Vincent Jackson AKA the Hawaiian Roller Coaster as your RB2.

I like Latavius Murray. Every time I watch him I like him a little more, so don’t think I hate your whole team here. It’s just that…it’s missing the bang it had last season.

Granted, you always seem to get things going and manage your team very well, but I’m more than a little nervous for you heading into week 1 against Will.

We’ll get to Will in a little bit, but just because ESPN screwed him with Kelvin Benjamin doesn’t mean that you’ll be walking out of Week 1 unscathed Mr. I Only Draft Cal Players Except For My Number One Pick.

Even though I regard you as a skilled team manager, I do question you sometimes Dad. Your good seasons are among the elite, but every once in awhile you fall off the deep end like an oak teetering into the lonely abyss with no one to hear it fall…

“Timberrrrrrrr” it whispers on it’s way to a silent grave.

A moment of silence for Bobby B's fallen hopes

Will you be in another playoff hunt with only your wife standing in the way of fantasy immortality? Or will I have to sell your adspace to a non-profit like All-Vegas Horses (voted best non-profit in Southern Nevada 2015)?

8.) Corey Hewett (FantasyPros #10, 80% with Great Management, 70% with Good Management, 55% with Average Management)

Well would you look who it is…remember when we used to laugh, Corey? Remember when you would be real with me instead of feeding me lies? Remember having 5 wins in your best season? Remember the Alamo?

Don’t even answer that. I know you don’t. Where our friendship once stood is now a sick bloodlust for whales, Captain Judas Ahab.

First you take Brandon Marshall after the “I don’t even want to touch him this year” speech, and then you turn around and choose Ray Rice. I mean, I thought this league was cutthroat before, but this? This is over the line.

Your first selection was Adrian Beatason, and then you follow up with the wife beater himself? Shame on you.

And to think...we were friends

Luckily, the FantasyPros have shunned you for your selection of Rice. “We condemn him,” they said as they sharpened the dagger meant for your fantasy season. Every year you seem to come in with a top 5 team only to have everything torn to shreds, but now? Now you sit towards the bottom of the pack with the faint glimmer of sunlight giving you just enough hope before it’s taken away in Week 8.

THE CROWN WILL BE MINE.

Now let’s get to your team, shall we?

I already told you how much I love your running backs. It’s hard to go wrong with AP and Frank Gore is going to be huge this year. Then I turn my attention to your receivers and what’s this? Randall “Number One Receiver in Green Bay” Cobb and Amari “The Future (Copyright Jimmy Garoppolo)” Cooper?!?! Wow. Studly.

Rounding it off with Crosby Sleeper Special Tyler Eifert and you have yourself a contender. How it fell below the likes of Eddie, Robert, and Miss Zero RB? I’ll never know.

Don’t rest too much on your strong draft though, because you start your season against the top dog in Curtis Smith. Will you force him into not caring about Fantasy Football? Or will he seal your fate early? This is officially my game of the week.

9.) Melinda Brown - Lindy's Lynch Mob (FantasyPros #7, 80% with Great Management, 65% with Good Management, 51% with Average Management)

Melinda hates her draft this year.

She hates having the number one tight end in fantasy, she hates having a future hall of fame running back, she hates having an accurate quarterback, and she most certainly hates being ranked this low.

Well Mom, sometimes life isn’t easy. You taught me that. Sometimes you need to get up and tell Peyton that you’ll always cherish the time you two spent together and ride off into the sunset with your new top-3 quarterback.

Sometimes yo-Wait, did you really name your team “Lynch Mob?” Like, lynching? After everything that’s happened this year? I mean, I expected this from Dave (Black LeVeons Matter), but you?!?! Is Sarah going to roll into work and tell her staff that her mother runs a lynch mob against her friends?

Shame.

We looked up to you...

Almost as much shame as you might feel if the Rams sit Todd Gurley for longer than 6 weeks. He’s currently your #2 running back. And your #2 receiver? He went to a team that hasn’t thrown a TD to a WR in 20+ games…Yikes.

This isn’t your old fashioned “Lindy’s Latte” burner with 3 Broncos putting up 100 points on their own as you casually drop that you wish your opponent scored more points to make it a close game…but this is doable.

I watched you Mock Draft at least 6 times, mom. I saw the look in your eye after Dave and Cheryl bragged about their lack of mocks. You had a determination unlike any other, and you know your talent.

I said it once, and despite what others have said, I’m not pulling any psychological warfare here: Win. I believe. #BlackLattesMatter

10.) Ryan Hewett (FantasyPros #9, 70% with Great Management, 55% with Good Management, 39% with Average Management)

It was fall. The cinnamon colored leaves littered the cold ground, providing a contrast to the fresh morning sky. It was cold in September of 1996, but the bitterness of the morning air could not hinder the excitement of a young boy’s first day of school.

He arose before he was told, and only God knows if he slept the night before, and greeted the sun while a big kiss and a smile. His brother, a grizzled veteran of the schoolyard, held firm to his last few minutes of summer in his bed.

The young boy ran downstairs where he was met with the heavenly scent of pancakes and a big cup of Tang, the official beverage of NASA. “Maybe I’ll be an astronaut!” the boy thought out loud, as he basked in the glory of an American education that waited just on the other side of breakfast.

“Mom, do you think I could be an astronaut?”

The mom did not answer, as though she did not hear him.

“Or a fireman?!?” the boy squeeled between bites of fluffy pancakes.

“Ryan,” said a young Lori Hewett, “we need to talk about that.”

“About what, mommy?”

“Well, Ryan, some boys were blessed with certain skills.” She choked.

“What do you mean, mommy dearest?” Ryan’s smile started to fade.

“Well, sometimes in life people will be better than you at things. You will work and work and work and some people will just naturally be better.”

A single tear began rolling down her face, reflecting the sunlight violently against the diminished glass of Tang.

“Like maths?”

“No, Ryan, like something important.”

“Like what, mom?”

“Like being able to draft a half decent team in fantasy football.”

RYAN! Corey flew you down for the show and this is what you brought?!?!

Sure, you traded for Demarco Murray and you landed Peyton Manning in a league where he pretty much has tenure, but DeAndre Hopkins is your WR1?!? I like him as a 2, but headlining? Yeesh. That’s like showing up for a Kanye West concert and having the Weeknd come out.

I like the guy, I do, but you’ve seen Hard Knocks. He’s open and the quarterback can’t get him the ball. I don’t know, I hope he proves me wrong. I do. But then Eric Decker at FLEX? That’s like seeing the Bee Gees cover band and having the Weeknd come out covering Sarah McLaughlin’s Save the Dogs commercials for 2 hours. It’s not even a decent part of an awful scenario.

I know you went 10-0 last year, and I want you to succeed, but was your competition a mop and 3 candy bracelets?

NICK LEAVE HIM ALONE HE'S JUST A BOY

I know I’m being harsh right now, but you have to bring honor to the Hewett name. No Hewett has ever been #1 in the Power Rankings, no Hewett has ever made playoffs, and no Hewett has ever won more than 5 games in a season. This is tough love because at some point we have to bring in one of the big boys to clean up the mess that’s been made.

You take on the Lynch Mob in Week 1, who has historically dominated this league. Set a precident. Be the change you wish to see in the league. I believe in you.

11.) Will Brown - gimme 4 weeks (FantasyPros #12, 65% with Great Management, 50% with Good Management, 28% with Average Management)

This looks bad, and I’m terribly sorry. ESPN did you dirty and they didn’t even call you after. 

 It's OK Will, ESPN does this to people

The best thing about this situation though is your team name. I mean, I’ll give you 4 weeks before the roasts start coming, but if you wind up in last I might have to sell ad space to Coyote Country. It’s just the right business move.

No, but I like Philip Rivers this year, I like Shady and DT and Mike “Sneaky WR20” Wallace. You have the pieces, and some of the chumps in this league need to see it in action before they drop judgement.

And keep in mind, no champion has ever started 2-0. No champion has ever started above the preseason rank of 9.

You know what they say: Where there’s a will there’s a way, and your name is Will.

12.) Sean Brown - Joe Buck Yourself (FantasyPros #11, 55% with Great Management, 30% with Good Management, 3% with Average Management)

I don’t know what to say. I mean, you hate to see it happen to a non-Smith.

It feels like shooting fish that I’ve already loaded into the barrel of a gun if I were to start roasting you, so let’s try to say some good things:

1. You have nice depth and promise and RB. Can’t go wrong getting Charles that late in the 1^st.
2.  Even if the MRI came back and confirmed Jordy’s torn ACL, you still have better receivers than Ryan, Dave, Mom, and Dad.
3. Your team name isn’t Rank This
4. Drew Brees has won 1 championship in this leagueIf you make playoffs, you get to throw that 3% stat around for the rest of your life.

See? It’s not all bad. I mean, things might be burning but this isn’t a wildfire. We all know you make moves as well as anyone, so I’m going to just sit back and watch…while FootballGuys drops this on you:

"Let us say this as nicely as we can. This team is brutal. It is below average and/or too thin at all three core positions (quarterback, running back and receiver)."

Ouch.