Thursday, August 18, 2016

Nick's 2016 Preseason Power Rankings

There are three truths in life: We are born, we die, and fantasy football will torment us during the space between.

As the temperature begins to sink, the leaves begin to fall, and the spirit of another summer fades into oblivion, we find comfort in knowing that we will soon be able to compete with those we love. Like a baby, our hopes and dreams of a championship are born again every fall.

One year ago, things were similar. We came out of the draft feeling somewhat comfortable with our teams while quietly criticizing someone else’s. We awaited the preseason ranking with bated breath to see where we fell; and as we read on that breath was either released in a victorious gasp or a terrified shriek. And just like in life, our hopes had to die at some point as Sean went on to win it all last season.

But that was last year. That was a different team. That was a different you.

Over the course of this past year, we have all tried new things. I myself have traveled, I’ve tried yoga, I competed in fencing. You see, there is a hidden fourth truth in life, if we choose to accept it: We change.

Change, like the coming autumn, is inevitable. The only question we are left with is whether it makes us better or not. It is my hope that it does.

Today we drafted the best teams we could assemble and now we must prepare for a lengthy war. The battles will be many, and from them we will be forced to change. By the time this is all through, the landscape of our league will be much different than it is today: players will shift, relationships will change, and we will watch the glimmer of hope leave each others’ eyes.

Morbid enough for you?


Welcome back to the blog. I hope to keep up with it a little more consistently this season. But, to begin, I have listed the 2016 Preseason Rankings below.

For those of us who didn’t read last year, or simply weren’t in the league (Gabe), I must issue this disclaimer: Do not take these rankings personally. If I cross a line, I will be the first to apologize. These are meant to further the enjoyment of the league through a little good, old-fashioned shit talk. Now, I myself do not rank the teams based on my own opinion. I have actually created tools and statistics to do that for me. I’m just the guy that will rip your team to shreds until you are left asking yourself where you went wrong in life. This will happen week after week after week and it wont stop until someone has it all. Welcome to The Captain’s League.

This season, I took everyone’s team as of 7:47pm Pacific Standard Time on Sunday, August 14rd, 2016, and entered them into 2 spots: Footballguys.com’s “Rate my team” tool, and FantasyPros’ “My Playbook.” Each site works a little differently. FootballGuys’ analyzes positional strengths and weaknesses and gives me a team’s chances of making playoffs based on how well that manage throughout the season (i.e. Are you on top of the Waiver Wire? Do you make a trade to better yourself? Do you add depth? Etc.). I took those percentages and placed everyone in order of their likelihood to make playoffs.

FantasyPros takes everyone’s starting roster and determines your strength at each position (for instance, Dave has the best QB1 in Cam Newton, but the worst WR1 with Julian Edelman). From there it ranks the teams for me. I then take the 2 rankings given and average it out to create the final preseason Power Ranking. Since FantasyPros’ approach is a little more basic (as it doesn’t take depth into account), I’ve favored Footballguys’ ranking in case of a tiebreaker.

Now to add a little disclaimer that I point out EVERY YEAR: This is based purely off preseason rankings and has no affect on whether or not you’ll make playoffs. Hell, it doesn’t even do a good job of predicting. Per the Nick Brown Bureau of statistics, no one ranked above 9th in the Preseason ranking has ever won a championship. This ranking literally means. Last year the bottom 4 teams made playoffs while the top 2 teams finished 11th and 12th. You understand? These things suck. Now buckle up! It’s time for some Fantasy Football Rankings.


1.) Gabe (#2 Fantasy Pros; 85% with great management, 80% with good management, 68% with average management)



HE’S BACK BABY.

In 2012, when the Elite 8 was born (Now The Captain’s League), Gabe started playing fantasy football to the tune of a 5-game losing streak, never rising higher than 6th place in these very rankings. After 4 years away from the game, it seems that the solitude has brought with it a newfound greatness.

There were questions about whether or not a man who finished 3-10 could be a reasonable fill-in for the departed Curtis, and yet here we are one year from when Curtis himself sat atop these Preseason rankings for the very first time. I personally could not think of a more fitting introduction to the Captain’s League for Gabe.

Now that the sentimentality is out of the way, let’s get into this team: Gabe made one thing clear when he arrived in Las Vegas: He had a strategy and he planned on sticking to it. That strategy, fortunately for him, involved one thing: Wide Receivers.

According to Fantasy Pros, Gabe has the best set of receivers in the league. And, to add to it, Gabe is above average with his D/ST, TE, and FLEX as well. One important thing to note, however, is Gabe’s small margin of error. Like Curtis last year, if Gabe lets this team slip by avoiding the waiver wire then he’ll find himself in a hole fast.

RIP

My take though? I think Gabe seems committed. I could see the focus, the drive, the glimmer in his eye as he made each pick. This is a man out to avenge his poor season with a great season, and I think he’s put together the right team to do it.

2.) Matt (#1 Fantasy Pros; 80% with great management, 65% with good management, 53% with average management)



HOW?

Matt inexplicably has found a way back into the #2 preseason spot for the second straight year. Last year I gave Matt some semi-praise for a solid draft. Looking back, it’s a little eerie:

“Mr. I Like To Draft Hurt Players and Not Know Their Names has somehow found his way into the 2-spot.”

Matt drafted Tyler Eifert, an injured Tight End, with his 8th pick.

“Good job, Matt! Way to go! Maybe this is the year where you don’t have a game where you score less than 55 points! The possibilities are endless!”

Matt didn’t score under 55 points last year for the very first time. Instead, he hit a low of 64…twice (and once more at 65).

“Tony Romo? He’s not flashy, but he’ll give at least 10 to Dez and a handful to Jason Witten. Can’t hate that. Don’t get me wrong, he’s no Andrew Luck or Aaron Rodgers, but you can’t hate Tony Romo.”

Matt decided to get a little flashy this year after being roasted all of last season. He took Andrew Luck.

And speaking of Luck, the reason you’re up here is partially because Fantasy Pros is high on him, the 27th-place QB from last year. They’re also high on your RB’s somehow. Do you remember who they are? I’ll give you a hint: They’re very similar and very average.

And then there’s your Wide receivers, which Football Guys called “strong enough to overcome your weak RBs.” I like Sammy. I like AJ. I just don’t LOVE them, you know? And then there’s Jarvis Landry, the stud receiver on the Dolphins that you got as your FLEX to fill the spot until Josh Gordon comes back (after he cuts the weight he’s reportedly put on). Landry should work wonders in the Adam Gase offense that feeds the WR1. Except you didn’t get Landry, Matt. You got DeVante Parker, the second-year guy on the opposite side of the field.

I’m a little concerned that you mistook depth for strength, because you drafted SEVEN WR’s. When are you going to ever play SEVEN wide receivers? If three of them had a bye the same week you still have too many. Meanwhile, you only drafted 3 RB’s. So I have no idea what your plan is.

Finally, let’s address your TE’s. As I pointed out, you took an injured Tyler Eifert. We told you about his injury and you thought “It’s fine, he’ll come back eventually to a different offense than last year and I can always just draft a backup tight end like everyone else in this league seems to.”

Except then you made the decision to back up your injured tight end with ANOTHER INJURED TIGHT END. Brilliant.



Good luck once again, Matty Ice. I hope you stay top-5 for longer than just the preseason.

3.) Nick (#6 Fantasy Pros; 90% with great management, 85% with good management, 77% with average management)




For years, the Captain’s League has wondered when Nick would take his rightful place as Champion. This, folks, might be the year.

Nick has somehow found his way back to the Preseason top 3 for a 3rd straight year (Matt has also but look what good that’s done him). And, with a top-3 talent at QB, RB, and WR, it’s easy to see why.

With a possible 90% chance of making playoffs, Nick is off to the start he wanted in such a stacked division. Football Guys described this squad best, saying that while it isn’t perfect, it’s very good all around and one of the strongest contenders in the league.

They did note one massive flaw, however, and it’s something I quite agree with: This team lacks the depth that many others have. While, yes, I do have Frank Gore (Last year’s #12 RB) as my RB3 and Allen Hurns (Last year’s #10 WR) as my WR3, it drops off from there. Nick will need some massive waiver pickups to live up to his massive aspirations.

4.) Cheryl (#4 Fantasy Pros; 85% with great management, 75% with good management, 61% with average management)


Cheryl went into this draft feeling the least prepared that she ever has been. Sources close to the smith family say that she had no idea who many of the players were, and yet she wound up with her most successful draft to date.

Something doesn't quite add up...

She went with her usual strategy, too: Draft an extra QB and an extra TE that she’ll never play, but also never trade. Because of this, it’s quite a feat that she wound up so successful.

Cheryl suffered greatly last year following her historic come-from-behind championship to cap off the 2014 season, where she rose from an 0-2 start to sneak into playoffs over #FreeJoshGordon only to win it all while FJG outscored every playoff team.

Even after her #5 preaseason ranking one year ago, she could not overcome the 1-4 midseason stretch as she dropped in the rankings out of contention (becoming only the 2nd champ to not make playoffs the following season. Yikes).

For those of us that recall the first ever Rules Summit, Cheryl was very eager to call out Commissioner Nick Brown as her desired rival. She was so eager, in fact, that many questioned if she, in fact, hated the commissioner in a capacity larger than Fantasy Football himself. He took note, though, as he beat Cheryl in week one last season just to add fuel to the fire.

This is important because, as luck would have it, Nick and Cheryl meet in week one once again; they’re only matchup of the year unless both made the championship. With week one just on the horizon, let’s take a look at Cheryl’s 2015 All-Stars.

Devonta Freeman, last year’s sleeper starlet, led Curtis Smith to a 12th place finish only to be taken first by Cheryl, who decided to back him up with Matt Forte, who was not only absent from a championship roster for the first time in this league’s history last year, but also led Matt to an 11th place finish.

She followed these picks with some nice receivers, including Doriel Green-Beckham, who coaches have described as having a “questionable work ethic” and “maybe a bust,” as well as Jamison Crowder who is so renowned that a sub-6 foot rookie who doesn’t know the playbook has earned a roster spot by default over him and even they aren’t starting.

Yikes

Cheryl’s world-beaters must prove that her championship wasn’t a fluke if she wants to truly be considered a heavy hitter in this league. Will she go the way of Bobby B and fade into oblivion after a few good seasons or will she take her spot amongst the Elite like Sean has and guard the way to fantasy glory?

5.) Ryan (#7 Fantasy Pros; 80% with great management, 65% with good management, 53% with average management)


What can you say about Ryan’s team that hasn’t been said before? He started off his draft by taking an injury prone tight end who will miss his starting quarterback for 4 weeks. What follows reads like a descent into madness.

An injury-prone RB1, an RB2 who has yet to score an NFL touchdown, an injury-prone WR1, and an elderly WR2. Did Ryan have a plan going in? Or was he just looking to take all of the weak picks off the board for everyone else? This list of players looks more like a “Who to avoid” than a successor to the King of the North.

Ryan can expect to see a huge dropoff in his odds at making playoffs if he doesn’t manage his team well. Especially with a roster that is this injury-prone, one wrong slip or missed pickup could spell doom for his season. Even this early in the year, Ryan is the first to experience an injury scare as Gronk left practice early. If I were him, I’d be looking to trade for some safer pieces fully knowing that he’ll have to sacrifice a little value to do so.

Ryan trying to trade

Ryan opens his season the hard way: With an opening matchup against Melinda and a week 2 slobberknocker against 2012 champ Will. Those first 2 weeks will give us a lot of insight over whether or not a.) Ryan’s team will hold up and b.) If last year’s win streak was a fluke. Who knows? Maybe there’s an elite Hewett.

6.) Eddie (#10 Fantasy Pros; 80% with great management, 70% with good management, 56% with average management)


For 11 of us, the draft began on Sunday at noon and finished at 3:41pm. For Eduard “Usain is my bitch” Boyadijian, it was nothing more than a blink.

Sorry, champ

In that fraction of instant, Eddie managed to not only draft Colts players for the 2nd straight year, but he has also astounded us with his ability to ask if someone has been drafted 3 rounds after they already were, once again proving his possibly distorted sense of time.

Fast Eddie’s uncanny ability to find raw talent is comparable to the likes of Saban, Belicheck, and Popovich. Unfortunately, his haggling abilities compare to that of Jack (of Beanstock fame) and Harry Frazee (of trade Babe Ruth the GOAT for the rights to a musical fame).

Football Guys has given the Quickness a 56% chance of making playoffs for his second straight year with average management. Last year, Eddie picked up more players than anyone else while also vastly overvaluing his own players (at one point saying he would only take AJ Green, the #6 WR in the NFL at the time, for Donte Moncrief, the #2 receiver on the Colts at the time).


If these trends continue for Eddie, then I have no idea how he makes it out of his division alive. His team has been described already as being above average everywhere but without real depth. I think we can all agree that it was a strong draft for Nike’s latest star, but can we definitively say that it will translate well for him? No, because the draft is only the beginning. And without the luck of James Jones and Ted Ginn Jr., I don’t think Eddie will be able to repeat.

7.) Lindy (#3 Fantasy Pros; 65% with great management, 45% with good management, 26% with average management)


Lindy left that draft with one thing to say: “Well my team is bad.” And you know what, Melinda? You’re absolutely right.

Let’s address your draft pick-by-pick to see where it went wrong:

      1.)  Nuk. Nothing wrong there. I expected him to be gone by the time it got to you.
      2.)  Oh….oh no. You took Thomas Rawls? In the 2nd? As in…14th overall? Why? It says here, here, and here that he wasn’t supposed to go until later. I mean, I liked him a lot and wanted him too…and I guess it makes sense if he was the best running back avai-Oh? You say LeVeon Bell, Jamaal Charles, and LeSean McCoy were all available? Ok yeah, but he’s going to get all of the Marshawn Lynch reps for the Seah-What’s that? He’ll be splitting time because he’s injury prone, they’re moving to a more vertical offense and they have depth at the position? Oh…
      3.)  Jordan Reed. Ok. I guess that’s a decent choice. He’s the 3rd best Tight End and at least you won’t follow him up with an unproven tal-
      4.)  Kelvin Benjamin……the guy who was hurt all last season after a pretty good rookie year. I mean it’s not like there were more reliable options left like…Keenan Allen, Demaryius Thomas, Randall Cobb, or Larry Fitzgerald left. Who did you get as your RB2 at least?
      5.)  Matt Jones. AKA Mr. 200 carries for 400 yards. I hope he pays off well.

Lindy's fans after this draft

I’ll stop there, because you finished strong with some nice depth. But my point is that this team is top 3 in two positions: Tight End and FLEX (which is a finicky thing to rank anyways). Other than that? Bottom 6 in every other position (including 12th out of 12 in both QB and RB1).

Football Guys said that Melinda is strong at WR and TE, but is weak everywhere else. In other words, she MUST be active on waivers in order to hoist the trophy she is currently selecting come December. With 65% odds of making playoffs if she manages this thing better than anyone, she may have bitten off more than she can chew.

8.) Dave (#5 Fantasy Pros; 75% with great management, 65% with good management, 48% with average management)


Oh boy have I been waiting for this. Break out the beef and bring some elastic waistbands, because we’re about to have a roast.

Gather round, everyone! It's time!

David Smith, first of his name, King of the Bad Drafts and the Reached, Lord of the “Was he taken’s” and protector of all your sleepers…Welcome back, baby.

Dave, like his wife, said he came into this with ZERO preparation. And, unlike his wife, I absolutely believe him. You see, in a year where everyone and their mother understood that elite wide receivers were at a premium, Dave waited until the 3rd to take his first receiver, who happens to be without his starting quarterback for a third of the fantasy season.

But Dave decided to take Cam Newton in the first round, and bold strategy that I really can’t counter because there’s nothing really wrong with it, per say…I even liked his second pick in Lamar Miller. What I loved the most though, was when Dave decided he was done drafting in the 9th round.

“Screw it,” he said, seemingly seeing the bloodbath of a season that lay before him, “I’m taking a kicker and a defense.”

HE'S A MADMAN

This was hilarious for 3 reasons: 1.) Dave took credit for “all the defenses taken after” him even though Will had taken the first defense 11 picks prior. Dave was the 3rd person to do so. 2.) Dave took this pairing as if there would be no other Kickers or Defenses left, despite the fact that they are, by their very nature, the most random and 3.) Dave made a big deal about these picks as he took the TENTH RANKED DEFENSE. As random as these things go, at least pick one projected to be top 5. Please Dave.



From then on, it seemed as though Dave just phoned in his old lacrosse buddies to fill out the remaining picks: “There’s gotta be a guy named Powell, right? Take him!” or “Hey, I heard Marques Colston is looking for a team. Maybe he can be on yours?” It’s also imperative that I point out that Free Agent Marques Colston wasn’t even Dave’s last pick.

Forget that Dave was a heat seeker for players with a Week 9 BYE. Forget that Dave listed his resume at least 3 times on Sunday. All we need to focus on is that this man has come into the draft for the 4th straight year saying “I didn’t do any research” and yet he still hasn’t learned. While we all know his response would be “But my championship,” to which I would like to point out that the man is just over .500 all-time at 22-17. 6 people have more wins than him all-time and only 13 people have played in the league.

I could list out what the “experts” have said about Dave’s team, but it really doesn’t matter, because he’ll decide his own fate. Dave Smith has made his bed out and now he must go 6-7 in it.

9.) Corey (#8 Fantasy Pros; 75% with great management, 65% with good management, 50% with average management)


Even after getting out my first real roasts of the season just in time to be warmed up for my rival, I can’t disrespect this roster. Corey took advantage of every player that fell to him. He somehow picked up arguably the 3rd best overall player at the 6th pick. He picked up an angry Dez Bryant in the second, an angrier Greatest Living American, and some nice depth that dropped into his clutches like gifts on Christmas morning.

Actual footage of Corey drafting

Corey may not have the best team, but I have no idea how his roster isn’t in the top 6. His is the only roster that should have 2 QB’s (I know it has 3 but that’s why he’s shooting for .500). He has 3 of the top 15 wide receivers and still wound up with 2 bellcow running backs. It was outstanding work, and I applaud him for it.

Why did Football Guys hate it then? What ever did Chippy B do? Did they take the last few years into account when ranking him? Well, they called Langford Things “strong” at WR while being weak everywhere else. According to them, Corey will need to put in a lot of work this year.

What does Corey have to lose though? His goal is 8 wins, which is around .600 on the season. This would, in fact, be Corey’s best season by 3 wins. Corey has managed an 18-34 overall record over his 4 years in the league, so the question remains:

What else does a man have to lose when he has already lost 65% of his games?

10.) Sean (#12 Fantasy Pros; 80% with great management, 65% with good management, 53% with average management)


Sean was in 12th place just one year ago when the preseason rankings came out. He laughed it off to hide the pain he was feeling after drafting Jordy Nelson within minutes after Nelson tore his ACL. Sean was crushed and didn’t know how he would fill the void left behind by his WR1.

We assured him that it would be fine, and that no champ had ever been ranked higher than 9th in the preseason. Then Sean lost to Dave in Week 1 by a measly 6 points. Such a loss to such an opponent would break most men, but Sean carried on. He knew his potential. He knew that, after a 2-3 start, his season had only just begun. Sean regrouped and won it all after a devastatingly impressive playoff run.

So who is to say that rankings should matter at all to Sean? I mean, he has an overall power ranking of 4, so who cares if he has such an abnormally low rank this early in the year?

It really doesn't matter

Sean cares. Sean is too competitive to take this laying down. He sees that 53% and it pisses him off. He hears the whispers that he sucks everywhere but at receiver and he wants nothing more than to prove the “experts” wrong.

This is another spot where I disagree with the rankings. Sean has one of the best running backs in the game and loads of depth to back him up. He took the right people at the right places and deserves to be much, much higher…but my words won’t matter to Sean. The only thing that matters to him is going back-to-back by climbing that mountain again. I would hate to be in his way.

11.) Robert (#9 Fantasy Pros; 75% with great management, 65% with good management, 50% with average management)


Now here is where I do agree with the pros.

Robert Brown has had a roller coaster of a Fantasy career. He finished his first season in 2nd place only to lose in the Championship game. He followed with a dead last finish, winning only 4 games to match the 4 losses he had suffered the previous year.

2014 brought new life, however, as Bobby B blew teams out of the park on his way to a #1 seed in the playoffs…at least, until he was beaten in the playoffs by eventual champion and underdog Cheryl Smith. There, it seemed, his spirit gave up. He hobbled into 2015 without the joys he once felt, missing his first back-to-back playoff birth by mere points.

So how did the man do in this draft? Well, other than inexplicably breaking out into random fight songs, Mr. Brown somehow found a way to draft every player with a question mark. Ezekiel Elliott, while talented, is a rookie. Eddie Lacy is coming off of his worst year, where he became a punchline for not being able to manage his weight or conditioning.

Eddie Lacy watching film

T.Y. Hilton and Keenan Allen are in a similar place. Both are immensely talented players, but was Andrew Luck a fluke and is Philip Rivers aging too much to let Allen live up to his potential? In other words, will either guy’s offense around him be any good? I sure hope so.

Stictly Bangers bring up Strictly questions at this point in time, and I hope the answers are positive ones.

12.) Will (#11 Fantasy Pros; 50% with great management, 35% with good management, 15% with average management)




Sunrise.

Will awoke from a shortened night’s sleep to the sound of his alarm. It was time to move. As he sat up in bed he saw the smallest beams of sunlight begin to form through the window. The temperature was rising, and with it were the number of drivers on the road.

He showered, shaved, ate, had his coffee, and grabbed the last of his things before kissing his parents goodbye. He walked out the door and loaded into his car before taking one deep breath. He slowly leaned over to open his glove box as he went through his mental checklist to make sure he grabbed everything for the journey. He rifled through the compartment until he stumbled upon wha he was looking for: an old watch.

The patent leather was cracked as he wiped the dust off it’s face. Had this watch been a human he would have put it in a home by now, but alas, he wrapped it around his steering wheel, tightening the strap and buckling it. He watched the piece on his wrist tick along… 10…9…8…he positioned his fingers over the knob on the old watch. 7…6…5…He cracked his knuckles one at a time as the time crept closer to 8am…4…3…2…1…he started the timer. It was time to drive.

The Subaru raced out of the neighborhood and swept it’s way onto the highway. Culdesac to avenue, parkway to interstate. His ancestors may have traversed this distance once, moving days at a time toward the place where the sun rested. But Will did not have days to make it, he had hours. He needed to see the skyline before the sun had peaked at noon, and so far his time was flawless.

He glanced down at the old watch on his steering wheel to check his status. It wasn’t even ten. He smiled. Thoughts began buzzing through his head about all the things he’d be able to do once he was back in LA. He reached down for his phone to switch over to the Hits when his senses kicked in. His gaze went upward to see a cars bumper right in front of him. He slammed on the brakes and banked into the next lane where his car safely stopped.

Up ahead was Will’s worst nightmare: Miles and miles of trucks. Trucks as far as the eye can see. It was like watching an ancient civilization learn how to drive on the same stretch of road at the same time. There were no openings, there was no forward movement. All there was was the sound of horns and the ticking of his watch.

Will crawled on for what felt like days. Surely he was almost out of this hellscape…he had passed abandoned construction zones, fender benders, and broken down trucks that were so covered in bumper stickers that he didn’t know the make or model. After a long while, he saw a glimmer of hope ahead as cars began to move freely once again.

“What caused all this suffering?” He thought as his eyes shot over to the side of the road towards the culprit. On the ground in the middle of the highway there lay but a lone tree.

Tears began to fill Will’s eyes. “No,” he said. “Don’t do it to me. Please.” Fortunately for him, the writer was merciful.

Will continued on through the day. He watched the sun peak and set over the sea of trucks. And as he was about to lose his mind, he set his eyes on that beautiful skyline. When he finally pulled into his apartment’s parking lot, he placed his hands over the watch. It had been hours since he had taken a look at it. He had all but lost track of time. What time could it possibly be? He turned off the car and moved his hand away, weeping when he saw the hour…

12.



Will, like many of the people to have been cast down to the 7th circle of the preseason rankings in past years, does not deserve to be here. He committed no terrible sin. He drafted no Darren Sproles. He didn’t even choke away his top pick. What on Earth did he do to be placed twelfth? I looked directly to Football Guys for answers, as they gave him easily the lowest percentage out of anyone. Ever.

Will’s obvious weakness is his wide receiving corps, but upon closer look, it isn’t that bad. Brandon Marshall is a top talent and a borderline steal based on where will drafted him. In fact, every WR Will has other than Pierre Garcon is a serviceable player.

In fact, if we look at Will’s RBs, he may have the best starters in the league. That leaves his QB and TE, where he has a consistently good Philip Rivers and an aging Jason Witten. I honestly don’t get it. Will can beat at least 4 out of the top 6 ranked teams. You heard it here first.








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