'Twas the night before football,
All and through the league,
Not an owner was resting,
There was too much intrigue.
First rounders were nestled in starting lineups with care,
In hopes that a 40 bomb soon would be there.
The owners were nestled all safe in their beds,
While visions of the John Kunya Memorial Trophy(c) danced in their heads.
Hello Friends,
We made it. The time has come. Welcome back to the blog.
After what felt like the longest offseason in history, we've reached opening day of the NFL Season. Before the start of last year, I wrote right here on this blog about the winds of change. And, while that symbol has never been more true, I think we need to reflect on the constants in our lives:
Family, Friends, Corey dropping to last place in the rankings, etc.
In trying times such as these, the constant is what keeps us above the stormy waters. Whether we're caught up in stress at work, political turmoil, a literal hurricane, or even just the raucous Fantasy Football season, keep those constants close to your chest. I believe it was F. Scott Fitzgerald who wrote, "So we beat on, boats against the current, borne back ceaselessly into the past."
No matter how this year goes for you, press on. All it takes is one good waiver pickup and a pinch of luck in order to win it all. No matter how much I rave about or criticize a team below, Fantasy Football is almost entirely based on chance and reducing risk. My goal here is to provide entertainment and controversy by using hyperbole and...just talk shit. I talk so, SO much shit.
If what I say offends you, reach out and I will make things right. But I'm just trying to be the bad guy this league needs in order to stand out and keep you invested.
Everyone needs a villain. That's where I come in.
For those of you who need a refresher: My Preseason Rankings are based on a statistical analysis of each roster immediately after the draft. I haven't corrected for any waiver pickups you've made in the last few weeks, or whether or not your guy has become the starter after an injury. This is entirely based on your draft.
The last few years, I've provided 3 percentages: Your odds of making playoffs with GREAT management (waivers, sit/start decisions/trades, etc.), GOOD management, and AVERAGE management. This year, I've taken those 3 percentages given by 4 different "experts" and averaged them into 1 percentage: Your chances of making playoffs.
Now, without further ado, I present to you: The 2017 TCL Preseason Rankings. Enjoy and good luck on your seasons.
1.) Team Smiths (89% chance to make Playoffs)
On November 25, 1980, the WBC Welterweight Championship was
up for grabs in the New Orleans. Squaring off in what would be the 2nd
of their 3 matchups was reigning Champion Roberto Duran and #1 contender Sugar
Ray Leonard.
Leonard had lost their first fight (and his title) by way of
decision, and spent years building up his counters to prepare for the eventual
rematch. After dedicating so much of his
life preparing for revenge, Leonard was ready to reclaim what was his.
Heading into the 8th round, Sugar Ray was up on
the scorecards as he noticeably wore down his rival. With 16 seconds left on
the clock, Leonard wound up with the left before throwing a snapping jab with
the right, landing flush with Duran’s already bloodied nose.
Duran did not drop, but rather turned his back to his
opponent, waved his hands, and cried “No mas” to the referee. Sugar Ray took
back his title as his biggest rival quit midway through the fight.
And Roberto Duran, ladies and gentlemen, went down as the 2nd
biggest quitter in sports history. The first? Dave Smith, former champion of
The Captain’s League.
Leaked footage of Dave Smith quitting
Dave, too, lost his title. He was then caught cheating and
refused to partake in league activities from that point on. Rather, Dave had to
resort to being a secondary owner of a team that his wife has taken control of.
Oh how the mighty have fallen.
Cheryl drafted well, sure. She overspent on a QB and
benefitted from the 1st overall pick, but the rest of her team seems
to have taken a nosedive.
After Spencer Ware went down for the year, Cheryl’s RB2 is
now Fat Rob. Her wide receivers are Doug “4 good weeks in 2015” Baldwin and
Keenan “My ankle popped when I was walking down some stairs so I might as well
be put on IR” Allen. As for depth, Cheryl clearly just drove around
Philadelphia one night asking locals for sneaky picks, because she’s rostered 3
Eagles.
Hey, at least she didn’t take a certain Eagle in the 1st
like her husband would have…
2.) 1.21 Jiggawatts (86.6% chance to make Playoffs)
Let me start by saying what an absolute pleasure it was to
see Gabe at the draft. One of my favorite things about this league is getting
everyone together (except Ryan, apparently) for the draft. What I really love
about having Gabe attend, though, is that he shows up with a gameplan.
Gabe spent a majority of the night before doing mock drafts
and reading analysis of his teams. He saw who experts were taking at what round
and who some good players were to take late in the draft. I appreciate his
dedication because the results clearly reflect that he took a team that experts
would love. There is one problem though…
He took exactly who I thought he would.
LeVeon is the clear-cut guy to take 2nd overall.
Cooper is a 2nd round pick and Miller is there to round out your
starting RBs in the 3rd…but other than Bell, do you love any of
those guys? I mean, Crabtree has outscored Cooper the last 2 years, so should
we overspend on him? Miller looked blind behind the line of scrimmage last year
whereas the Crow (ca CAH!) succeeded in a worse situation…
I guess my concern for this team is…was it based on too much
speculation? Most of Gabe’s team consists of guys that had OK to Good years
last year that some experts just assume will improve without anything to back
that up. Even if the average Fantasy “expert” loves the pick, they’re still
average…and that’s what I’m concerned this team will be.
I hope Gabe proves me wrong. He sure did last year as he ran
to the Playoffs, but let’s hope he stays active…because he might need to.
3.) Joe Buck Yourself (76.4% chance to make Playoffs)
The reigning champ has once again set himself up for success
with an excellent draft. Bolstering himself with a strong RB (backed up with
Sean’s patented Atlanta RB), a WR who is sure to disappoint, and a WR2 who had
a good preseason game, this looks like the quintessential Sean Brown team.
He even pulled a little chicanery and lied to everyone about
where he’d be comfortable taking Ezekiel Elliott, only to take him at a spot
where no one else would have.
As for team loyalty, you have to love how Sean loaded up on 3 Chiefs and 2 Chargers while taking the Raiders 3rd string RB with
his last pick.
Still, for all the things I just pointed out, there is a lot
of talent on this roster. I don’t even think I have to go out on a limb to say
that this is the best team I’ve ranked thus far. If I were building rankings on
my own opinions, this would probably be #1.
This early in the season, Sean makes a strong case to repeat
his championship. When I look at V3 of Joe buck Yourself, I see a perfect blend
of high floor and high ceiling, and it’s a thing of beauty.
Hope that doesn’t jinx him, or anything.
Good luck with Zeke
4.) The Sir Winstons (67.4% chance to make Playoffs)
Throughout the course of human existence, great minds have
always posed questions that, when answered, progress us as a species.
What does it mean to exist? Do we perceive our environment
differently than others? What is life and does it exist outside our world?
Where in the hell does Ryan get these terrible team names?
I’m going to assume that Ryan is referring to Sir Winston
Churchill., who most people refer to as, Churchill. It would literally make
more sense for me to name my team “Lord Nelson” after Horatio Nelson, the 1st
Duke of Bronte, an admiral in the British Navy, because “Lord Nelson” is what
people called him.
Ryan could have gone back to his Game of Thrones theme with
“A Feast for Crowells (ca CAH!)”, but instead went this weird…look, I don’t
want to call it lazy, but there could not have been more than 3 minutes spent
thinking of this team name.
Anyways, I digress: I was severely disappointed that Ryan’s
work schedule would not permit him to join us in person for the draft this
year. You all know how much I lo-
The Melvins. You could have just called your team The
Melvins after the American rock band (a genre that we all weirdly associate you
with), which also ties into the name of your RB1. This stuff is too easy.
Please. PLEASE pick a better name.
Ryan’s Terribly Named Team™ was autodrafted for the first
time in our leagues history, and resulted in what I can only refer to as every
player people say is really good but no one is comfortable enough to take.
Seriously. This entire team has question marks: Jameis?
Great athlete who makes terrible decisions. Melvin Gordon? Will he have another
great year or a year where he scores literally ZERO touchdowns again. Pryor?
Was he only great because he was all the Browns had or is he actually elite?
Allen Robinson? Elite but has a flaming pile of Ryan’s team names for a
quarterback.
Autodraft giving you a team
I don’t know. Really. I give up. That’s what this team is.
5.) Fantasy Fatale (67.17% chance to make Playoffs)
“Look! A feminine team name! That must be Lindy” – everyone
in the league 20 minutes after the draft.
Mom's team name
What can you say about Lindy’s team? When I look at it, I
wonder whether this is the Melinda Brown who almost won a championship or the
Melinda Brown who finished with a 2-11 record last year.
Lindy went out in disguise and purchased USA Today’s Fantasy
Football Preview this year. She put on a nondescript hoodie, sunglasses, and a
wig, drove down to our neighborhood Albertson’s at noon on a Tuesday, and
bought a Fantasy Football preview written in March.
One thing I deeply, deeply admire about my mother is how
much she dedicates herself to these kinds of things, but I’m worried that she
didn’t realize that that magazine was outdated as it was being published. It might as well have been written by hand by a scribe.
Lindy leaving Albertsons with her Fantasy Football magazine
I love Matt Ryan, I really do, but he went from having a
prodigy as his offensive coordinator to a guy who’s most recent resume includes
getting fired from USC for being an alcoholic, and blowing a national
championship to the 2nd best team in the country.
I could break down this roster like I have to so many
rosters before, but instead I’ll just say this: I love you very, very much. I
know I don’t say it as often as I probably should, but I love you…and I’m
terribly sorry for the crimes I will commit in dismantling this team Week One.
6.) Bad Juju (57.67% chance to make Playoffs)
Will comes in first place this year for his Fantasy Team
Name. If you see Ryan, give him some pointers. Will also comes in second place
for the best receiver duo, getting edged out slightly by Bobby B. However, Will
somehow managed to put together 2 serviceable running backs while our dear
father wound up with 0. That’s why he hasn’t won a championship, I suppose.
Anyways, I hate to give this team any bad juju, but this
squad will be boring as shit to watch. You have some good talent and all, but
you’re banking on watching the Redskins’, Jets’, Colts’ and Rams’ offenses this
year. I know when I take my selective 22-minute Sunday nap, I target when those
4 teams are on offense.
Watching Will's team play
This team will be so boring to watch that Will might drop
all of them and pick up the cast of Young Sheldon on waivers (if Eddie hasn’t
gotten there first).
Literally the only 3 people that I’d get enjoyment from
seeing are his Wide Receivers and his kicker. As a general rule of thumb, if
only 3 of your 9 starters generate excitement, you should just buy tickets to
see Manchester by the Sea or something. Really. Go watch literally anything
else.
7.) Fast Eddie (54.25% chance to make Playoffs)
Every year on Draft Day, I wake up 15 minutes before sunrise
(5:43 AM this year), make myself a cup of Green Tea, put on “Outro” by M83 (run
through a vinyl filter), and watch the sunrise while doing some breathing
exercises. This year, however, something was wrong.
While waiting for the water to come to a boil in my VATTENTÄT©
tea kettle, I heard a rustling outside. I peered out the window in my NJUTA©
bathrobe into the dark summer dawn and saw lights across the parking lot.
“Just some hardworking blue-collar Americans racing to beat
the sunrise,” I thought.
The sounds of Anthony Gonzalez’s dramatic crescendo was
slightly disturbed by the load beeping of industrial trucks beyond my doors. I
decided that the music was unnecessary in order to achieve zen at the exact
moment that the sun fully breached the horizon, so I shut down my KRUSCHA© 5.1
Surround Sound Stereo system and took in the sounds of that August morning.
There were birds, crickets, and…shouting. I opened my eyes
slightly to decipher what was being said when there was a loud CRASH.
The shouting grew louder. Fiercer. More violent.
I did what anyone would have done: I threw on my matching NJUTA©
slippers, poured some green tea into 3 spring colored DUKTIG© teacups, and
rushed to go diffuse the situation.
I arrived to find 2 workers (I never assume gender) outside
a Republic Services truck yelling to a 3rd, unseen person. They said
that, while making their rounds, someone had hopped inside the bin. Curious, I
asked if I could assist them in removing the poor soul.
They agreed, and I climbed the ladder only to peer inside
and find Eduard Boyadjian going through the wastes.
Eddie on Fantasy Football
“Eddie, are you ok?” I asked, concerned for not only his
health, but his lack of IKEA apparel.
“I’m fine Nick, just going through my team. Have you heard
of Sammy Watkins? I can’t believe no one picked him up!”
“Eddie!” I cried, “You already have Cooper Kupp on your
bench…and the Rams have to play the 30th best schedule for receivers
this year…it’s kind of a stretch to have one of those guys starting without
seeing how Goff looks…”
But before I had finished my plea, Eddie had submerged below
the rest of the trash, needlessly dropping players behind him instead of using
waivers correctly like everyone else.
8.) The Rookie (53% chance to make Playoffs)
The Rookie is a 2002 sports drama film directed by John Lee
Hancock and produced by Walt Disney Pictures. It is based on the true story of
Jim Morris, who had a brief, but famous Major League Baseball career in
1999–2000. The film stars Dennis Quaid, Rachel Griffiths, Jay Hernandez, and
Brian Cox.
Ultimately, it’s not an awful movie. IMDB gives it a 7/10,
which is probably a point higher than I’d give it, but that’s not a hill I’d
die on. The plot is like if Breaking Bad was about Walt becoming a pitcher
instead of a meth dealer written by Disney’s league of faceless writers instead
of Vince Gilligan.
Tim’s team is very much like Disney’s The Rookie: It’s not
anything special, it’s not particularly memorable, and when you look back on it
you’re not quite sure where all his picks went.
Where did Tim's picks go?
Before breaking down the roster though, I need to be
absolutely clear that it’s a particularly impressive team for someone new to
the game. We’ve seen plenty of rookies in this league, and so far Tim is doing
a good job of avoiding the same pitfalls that so many others have failed to navigate.
Back to the roster: Tim didn’t blow any picks like some people
in this league have (Dave), but it’s hard to find the strength of this team.
Sure, he has Aaron Rodgers as his QB, but his top 2 RB’s are Devonta Freeman
and the ghost of Adrian Peterson. His top receivers are Alshon Jeffery and
Emanuel Sanders, who aren’t awful, but they give off a vibe that Tim missed out
on a true stud.
It’s not an awful team. It’s a watered down version of a
real contender. There’s something here to build on, but we’ll have to wait and see
if that comes to fruition. In fact, this team might actually be Dennis Quaid.
Both the best and worst metaphor I've used for a team.
9.) Need For Snead (51.67% chance to make Playoffs)
Could this be the best team in the league?
I can hear all the doubt. I hear all the criticism. “He
doesn’t have a running back. He’s lost a step.”
The king hears you. The king just doesn't care.
Let’s keep in mind that Leonard Fournette has had more hype
behind him throughout his collegiate career than Zeke did. Let’s keep in mind
that Ameer Abdullah is the analytics darling. Let’s keep in mind that Dougie
Martin is a monster in odd years. Let’s keep in mind that the Patriots LOVE to
run the ball with a nice big back when they get inside the 10.
Or, you know, forget it. Forget my high ceiling and focus on
these names: Nelson, Nuk, Martavis, Smoke, and SNEAD. Which 3 will I be playing
against you this season? Just know that when they put up 20 a piece, you
personally allowed them to fall into my hands.
My team dropping 120 on your before you've finished your mimosa
My mistake last year was not dropping Russell Wilson like
his offensive line did 6 times a week. This year, I decided to go for a QB
whose team has invested in him with talent: Mariota.
I will dismantle my division. I will knock off former and
reigning champions, and I will finally take what is rightfully mine. When you
look at these teams and seek out the question marks, you made the mistake of
not paying me the respect I deserve.
Last year, the Preseason 11th ranked team won in
all. In 2015? The 12th ranked team. 2014? The 8th ranked
team.
No team higher than 8th in these preseason
rankings has ever won a championship. This year I ditched the conventional and
delved into the analytical. I’ve built this team like a finely crafted machine.
The crown will be mine.
10.) Dak City (43.83% chance to make Playoffs)
I literally forgot this team was in the league.
Here I am, uploading my rankings to the site, when I see
Matt’s roster on another tab. How could I possibly forget?
I actually don’t hate Matt’s team this year. Few things give
me more joy than opening Microsoft Word and spinning delightful little yarns or
prose about how utterly dismal Matt’s roster is. It’s even become and annual
tradition.
But, as I write this up at the last minute, I don’t see
anything I don’t like about this team. Sure, I firmly believe that Dak has a
sophomore slump, but Matt got excellent value for every one of his picks. AJ
Green was great for him last season before getting hurt, TY Hilton had the most
receiving yards last season, and Carlos Hyde is not as bad as people think.
I’d normally call into question his pick of CJ Anderson as a
FLEX, but Matt picked up some nice depth, which physically pains me.
I already beat the “Bad team name” horse to death in Ryan’s
post, which sucks because adding “City” to a Player’s name doesn’t
automatically make it a good name.
Whatever. Good job, Matt. I’ll give you one.
RIP you beautiful bastard
11.) Strictly Bangers (44.17% chance to make Playoffs)
I’m not sure what happened to Bobby B last year. The Hall of
Records says that he put up 1,407 points (3rd All-Time) and finished
at 8-5 on his way to win the John Kunya Memorial Trophy, but we all know that
Sean won the 2017 Championship, so I think my laptop got stolen.
When Bobby B said he won it all.
Last year, Robert Brown was in the exact same spot on the
Preseason Rankings, but picking up Tyreek Hill definitely helped his team.
Without Hill, his WR2 would have been Taylor Gabriel (the 3rd best
receiver on his own team). He was built entirely around have Drew Brees as his
QB and rostering 2 good RB’s that he could rely on.
This year’s team is very similar: Odell Beckham (injury or
not) and Michael Thomas are two absolutely incredible wide receivers, much like
Zeke and Demarco Murray were great running backs for him last year. But when
you look at the paper champ’s running backs, you see Joe Mixon (listed at 3rd
on the Bengals Week 1 depth chart) and…Paul Perkins. Other than that, it looks
like Bobby B wasn’t done trying to buy lottery tickets, as he has 5 of them on
his bench.
A bench full of Strictly Losers
“But Nick,” I know you’re saying, “He has Drew Brees! Drew
Brees has been on 3 championship teams!”
Look, grow up and understand that, in a passer’s league,
QB’s aren’t at the premium they used to be. Jay Cutler might throw for over
4,000 yards last year and he retired without anyone realizing it. A good QB
doesn’t make a team, but a bad QB breaks a team. Take that adult advice and go
sound smart at your book clubs or whatever it is you people do in your spare
time.
One expert went as far as to give Bobby B a 7% chance of making playoffs with AVERAGE management. That is by far the lowest I have ever seen.
Questionable stuff, Bobby B. Go drown the tears with your
European food.
Same.
12.) The Cheesecake Argument (35.5% chance to make Playoffs)
This year, Corey made a number of big decisions:
He decided to move with Matt to a house instead of the condo
they had been living in.
He decided to take another job at a different firm that PWC.
And he decided to give up entirely on Fantasy Football.
With the departure of our dear, sweet Dave, Corey has
assumed the role of the empty chair. He showed up to the draft with 0
preparation, and took names he recognized (possibly without realizing if those
players switched teams). Corey’s 2nd running back is the Sausage
King of Seattle, Eddie Lacy. Lacy has hit more buffets than he has holes over
the past 2 years, and is now logjammed in the mess that is Seattle’s backfield.
Corey also picked up both of the Jets’ former receivers,
Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker, after they both left New York. Both are good
picks, but I’d feel much more comfortable having them as my FLEX than starting
both. Corey also made the mistake of drafting Mr. Vaseline himself, Ted Ginn.
"It's like raiiiiiiiiiiiiiiin, on your wedding day"
The best part though? Corey is rostering newly retired
Mar-A-Lago golf club member, Anquan Boldin.
Oh, you thought I was kidding?
The man literally could not care less and the season hasn’t
even started yet.
In honor of such a perfect start to the season, I’ve decided
to forgo an overlong roast and get some early ad revenue. Good luck this
season, Chip.
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