After an exciting Week One (from a fantasy standpoint), it’s
nice to be getting back in the swing of things.
Welcome back to the Power Rankings…the first TRUE Power
Rankings of the season. Whereas last week was all about speculation and will
have 0 impact on how team’s actually finish, this week’s rankings are based on
cold, hard, numbers.
For those of you unfamiliar with how regular season rankings
are done (Tim), I’ve created a simple algorithm that takes each team’s win/loss
record and points scored and spits out a percentage: Nick’s Power Ranking
Percentage, or NPRP.
The higher your NPRP, the higher your ranking. As the season
grinds on, dominant teams will separate themselves and contenders will be
neck-and-neck. Teams will establish themselves as staples at the top, while
Corey will wallow in his misery at dead last.
You may be wondering what a good NPRP score is, or where the
Champion usually finishes. I, too, wondered this, so I went through our Hall of
Records and found something fascinating: Only once ever has the Champion been
the best team at the end of the Regular Season.
Keep in mind that the numbers won’t stabilize until Week
6-ish, so everyone’s NPRP will be a lot more extreme in the early season.
Basically, you’re not historically good or bad yet.
I found that the NPRP scores have dipped as the league has
expanded, which makes sense based on the increased competition and variance. I
also found that, since the expansion to 12-teams, the #1 team has never made
the Championship game, while the opposite was the case for the first 3 years of
the league.
Finally, to answer your question, I learned that the
Champion usually finishes Week 13 with a score of .174, while the Runner Up
actually finishes with a .192.
In other words, the Playoffs are a complete crapshoot and
whoever get lucky will win it all.
I will do my best to keep these up this year, even if it
means having to shorten some of the praise (while maintaining the same amounts
of criticism). Enjoy Week 2 and Good Luck!
1.) (LW #3) Joe Buck Yourself, 1-0 [133 PPG, .319 NPRP]
Sean has found his way back on top as defending champion of
the league. After an insane 133 point outing (with plenty more left on the
bench and only 4 points from his QB), we now have a new target to smash.
Sean put noticeably less preparation into his draft efforts
this year, but it paid off by taking whoever fell to him, even if those same
players share similar criminal records. But ethics to not matter to Sean on his
path to a 2nd Championship, only wins do.
This week, the Champ takes on the lowly, yet 1-0, Dak City
in Matt Smith. I won’t even begin to call Sean lucky after witnessing his
dedication to the game firsthand, but being placed in the Easiest division with
such a cakewalk of a schedule must be nice.
We should get used to seeing this now
Not that there’s anyone he would have lost to Week One…
2.) (LW #4) The Sir Winstons, 1-0 [109 PPG, .262 NPRP]
Somehow, some way, Ryan triumphed this weekend despite
having Sam Bradford as his quarterback.
In the case of Hewett v. Republic Services, Ryan stood
victorious. Of course, having the Jags defense last week certainly didn’t hurt…
You can’t say it was great management, as he benched Golden
Tate in favor of Allen Robinson, but you also can’t say it was luck, with TWO
of Ryan’s players going down with season-ending injuries.
So unfortunate
However, you can say that if Ryan’s defense didn’t blow up
with one of the best performances I’ve ever seen (even against a Hot Topic
cardboard cutout for a quarterback), he’d be a middle-of-the-road team. His
roster is, believe it or not, in serious trouble.
If the Jags had put up the numbers of an average defense
(around 8 points), Ryan would be out of 24 points, finishing with 85 in a
losing effort. And even though Jameis is coming back to start for this team,
you can’t expect 27 points every week from that position.
Ryan is only projected to put up 85 points this week against
a wily Melinda Brown, who is looking to avenge a close loss. Where #1 Sean
Brown faces a Ryan’s team name of a schedule, Ryan has a murder’s row…until he
faces Team Smith in Week 3.
If Ryan doesn’t start accumulating better wide receivers, he
could be facing a classic “Timber” post next week.
Don't slip now.
3.) (LW #9) Need For Snead, 1-0 [98 PPG, .235 NPRP]
Doubt me now.
They keep saying “he’s all about the talk.” “He’s too biased
towards his own team.” “He spends too much time hiding behind the blog.”
What they don’t talk about is the skill, because they know
it’s there. They fail to sleep soundly every fall because they know I’m coming.
They know what season it is and who it belongs to…
I thought Leonard Fournette was overrated? You could have
fooled those 19 points he put up in his debut against a monstrous Houston
defense…
Surprise, Surprise...
I thought Deandre Hopkins was washed up? He put up 11 on one
of the best corners in the NFL. This team is just warming up.
I even made mistakes. I should have taken a chance with
Gillislee, giving me 22 points on the bench. Maybe I played a bit to timid to
show my mother mercy…
But I’ll take this victory humbly. Melinda was sensational
in her season debut, even without her top 2 draft picks. She has one hell of a
roster and is really going to be scary once that team comes together.
With that being said, I have Cheryl this week, and things
are going to get ugly.
4.) (LW #2) O.J.’s on Parole, 1-0 [79 PPG, .190 NPRP]
Gabe absolutely dismantled Corey this past week, doubling up
on him despite only scoring 79 points. And yet, when you look at Gabe’s roster,
he should expect plenty more points as the season continues to unfold.
Russell Wilson looked miserable behind a horrendous O-Line,
LeVeon Bell didn’t get that many looks against a downright bad opponent, Amari
Cooper dropped 3 touchdown passes…
So many things fell the wrong way. Gabe should have gotten
blown out based on how unlucky he is. He should have nosedived in the rankings.
But he didn’t.
Instead, he persevered against a team hell-bent on losing.
Instead, he beat the Baron of Bad, the Lord of Losing, the Twerp of Twelvth.
Instead, he came out on top and started his season off unlucky, but with a goose
egg in the loss column…and it’s hard to mad about that.
Someone asked me who I thought was going to make playoffs
this season. After looking at the rosters, I think it’s obvious: Sean and Gabe
from the Weak division, Myself and Eddie from the strong division, and Melinda
and Will join as the Wildcards.
Even with a 79-point outing, Gabe’s still firmly in that
list of the top 6. With a more…impressive performance this week against The
Rookie, he’ll continue to separate himself from the trash in his division.
5.) (LW #11) Dak City, 1-0 [64 PPG, .154 NPRP]
This past week, Matt reached out to me through a mutual
friend to ask if I had heard of the song “Rack City,” the basis of his team
name. I’d like to take a moment to respond to this.
Hi Matt! I hope all is well. Yes, I have indeed heard of
Tyga’s 2012 smash hit “Rack City.” I got that. Thank you for your concern about
my awareness of the zeitgeist.
Question: Have you seen Wesley Snipe’s “New Jack City?” It’s
a 1991 New York crime classic that has found it’s 2nd life in 2017,
referenced by both rap stars and athletes (including Marshawn Lynch). I feel
that “New Dak City” would be a much cooler team name.
You see, “New Dak City” at least draws direct attention to
the pun, whereas “Dak City” sounds about as common and boring as “Dak Train,”
“D-Money,” or even “Datty Ice.” Also, no one has listened to Tyga since 2015.
If you would like me to answer any other questions, my
number has been the same since 2004. No need to go through mutual
acquaintances.
Anyways, Matt got a win this week against the new guy. He
made some questionable start/sit decisions, which I hope he learns from, but
other than that I see no scenario where he beats Sean this week. Sean’s team is
superior in every way. Game. Set. Match.
That’s that New Jack City, boy.
6.) (LW #6) Bad Juju, 1-0 [56 PPG, .134 NPRP]
Will sent me a text weekend admitting that he had made
some…questionable lineup choices.
And, while I agree with Will 1000%, he still got a win with
only 56 points on the board. If Will isn’t in mass on Sunday mornings at 6am,
then I have no idea how he pulled that off.
Look at this boy’s team! Name one running back that who’d
make you say “I’m starting him and I feel great about it.”
In fact, other than his wide receivers, I don’t know that
I’d feel good starting any of these guys. He wants to mouth off about my
running back when he’s stuck deciding between a dinosaur and a potato.
And it’s not like Will plays in the cupcake division,
either. He has to compete with Ryan, Eddie, Lindy, and myself. It’s going to be
a loooooong season trying to claw his way into Playoffs.
This week he takes one of those killers in Fast Eddie
Boyadijian, who will be seeking to take out his frustrations after getting
robbed by Mr. Autodraft last Sunday.
7.) (LW #7) Fast Eddie, 0-1 [100 PPG, .120 NPRP]
Eddie was the beneficiary of a gift this week. No, he has
not yet received his financial compensation from one Nigerian Prince; but
rather, Eddie was gifted his pick of the waiver litter.
With Corey obviously tanking, Cheryl losing her #1 overall
pick, and Bobby B having 0 startable running backs, you’d think that the most
picked-up player in fantasy football (Tarik Cohen) wouldn’t possibly fall to
the 6th man in line.
But nooooo, I severely overestimated this league. Corey
tanked for a backup running back who benefitted from a blowout. Cheryl picked
up a fragile grandfather who was alrEADY CUT FROM THE TEAM THAT JUST SIGNED
HIM.
But no, Eddie was gifted the Flavor of the week, and I have
to give him all credit for it. God knows that Eddie needs a running back with
Christian McCaffery and Beast Mode.
There’s no two ways about it: Eddie has a strong team that
got a bad draw. Unfortunately for him, the schedule doesn’t really let up for
awhile: He’s playing in the dominant conference (which I know he was opposed to
from the very beginning).
If this were a team like Cheryl’s, or Corey’s, or Matt’s,
I’d say that they’re probably going 0-13 based on schedule alone. But Eddie has
a strong roster and we all know how drop-happy he is, ditching half his roster
if it means gaining just a 1-point edge on his opponents.
He’s erratic, silly, sometimes foolish…but Eddie has a
strong track record and the mindset it takes to win it all. As hard as I went
on him last week for humor’s sake, I’ll eat my crow and say that this is a team
to beat. He won’t be facing a 30+ point defense every week…Hopefully.
8.) (LW #5) Fantasy Fatale, 0-1 [96 PPG, .115 NPRP]
I was incredibly impressed by Lindy’s performance this
weekend.
On Thursday night, I told Sean how bad I felt that she had
to deal with her Top 2 picks missing Week One due to a hurricane. On Sunday
night, I was left wondering if I was destined to lose to a team missing their
Top 2 picks.
Somehow, I survived while she was left to weep in pure
misery in the wasteland that is Portugal. And for that, I am eternally sorry.
I don't know what show this is, but it is a recreation of Melinda talking to her demons
Despite high praise for a few of the teams above, Melinda’s
impressed me the most this week. None of her players seemed to “blow up,” and
yet she was the 5th highest scoring team. This was no fluke of a
game like…say, Ryan. This was an average performance without her (theoretical)
top scorers.
This team will be a force, and I’m so happy that I got to
face it in a weakened state.
9.) (LW #10) Strictly Bangers, 0-1 [56 PPG, .067 NPRP]
Did you enjoy that nice little piece about Lindy’s team?
Because the opposite is true about Bobby B’s…discombobulation.
Save me from this roster
2nd, 10th, 1st, 6th,
Championship. This is the order of Bobby B’s regular season finishes; The
pattern being that he’s only a true contender every other season. With last
year being his magnum opus, we should expect this season to be hs catastrophe.
He has real nice receivers, a QB and TE that led him to the
promised land last seasons, and just the ugliest mess of a backfield in the
history of our league. And when he finally got a chance to use his waiver
position to improve his RBs, who did he pick up?
The backup running back for the worst team in the NFL.
Great.
I WANT OFF MR. PERKINS' WILD RIDE
I honestly find it hilarious that he’s so close to Melinda
in the rankings, because they are such opposites. She got unlucky, but has
promise and potential. He, on the other hand, had about as good of a week as
you’re going to have starting Paul Perkins.
The challenge for Bobby B is going to be finding a source of
luck, because he’s already one game back and 77 points out of Playoffs with
just one week down.
10.) (LW #1) Team Smith, 0-1 [55 PPG, .066 NPRP]
Retirement was nice. Quiet, but nice.
Dave Smith sat in his garage, sipping on a Busch Light and
wiping sweat from his brow while the AM radio droned on the corner. He admired
the Datsun that stood suspended, ominously watching over his domain from its
perch.
Dave took a sip of his lukewarm beer. He had no idea what
time it was. He had no idea what DAY it was. Work was steady, but was it really
work when he enjoyed it? A smile came to his face. Dave was content.
The radio was set to a soccer match, or was it basketball?
He turned his focus to it for just a moment.
“This kid David Johnson is something special. There’s a
reason our very own Matthew Berry is so high on him.”
Dave’s ears lit up. Matthew Berry? Was this a football game?
He’d have to make sure this Dave Johnson was on his team if Matthew Berry was
high on him.
“Hey hun,” Dave shouted into the depths of his house. “When’s
the draft?”
Cheryl turned the corner into the garage, keys in hand.
“It’s today, dear. I’m about to leave for it. You sure you don’t want to
come?”
“No, I’m too good for them.” Dave winked as Cheryl rolled
her eyes.
“What did you want, ‘Mr. Co-Owner’?” Cheryl asked sarcastically.
“This Dave Jones guy, you should grab him. I was doing
research this morning and I think he’d win you the league.”
“Sure Dave, whatever you say,” said Cheryl as she left.
Dave smiled as the door closed. He helped his wife win the
league. It was easy work, he thought, he was so much better than all of them
and he didn’t even watch hockey.
He took the last sip of his beer before laboring up to get
another. Dave ventured through the garage, stepping over tool boxes, dodging
car parts, dipping under ladders…until he reached his grand prize: An ice cold
can of German-brewed America.
He cracked open the can as the ladder fell. It fell hard
right on an old rear view mirror, shattering it.
Frustrated, he lumbered over to clean up the mess when he
accidentally bumped into the car jack nestled under the Datsun. Dave looked on
in terror as his baby came crashing down to the Earth.
TIMBERRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRR
CHERYL NOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!
From #1 to #10, the Smiths are spiraling. And just when I
thought it couldn’t get any worse, Cheryl picked up CJ0K with her high waiver
claim, a man whom the Cardinals cut 2 weeks ago. She’ll never start him.
It will not be a fun season for the Smiths, but maybe that’s
what Dave needs to come out of retirement.
11.) (LW #8) The Rookie, 0-1 [51 PPG, .061 NPRP]
A rough week to be sure for The Rookie.
This team reminds me of Dennis Quaid in “Wyatt Earp,” where
he starred as Doc Holliday.
Actually, it doesn’t, I just wanted to point out that Dennis
Quaid is best epitomized as the guy who co-stars in the Poor Man’s version of
movies you like. He’s not in Tombstone, he’s in Wyatt Earp. He’s not in CSI, he
was in Vegas. He’s not in W., he plays George W. Bush in American Crime Story
(apparently).
This isn't Dennis Quaid but it showed up when I googled him as W.
This team worries me because I don’t want it to be a playoff
contender in some minor league, I want it to be a contender in this league.
Tim has numerous moves to make, and it’s going to be hard to
make them when he doesn’t put in any waiver claims. I almost blame myself for
not informing him about waivers, but that may be something he needs to discover
for himself.
Luckily, games like this come with the territory. There is a bit of a learning curb for rookies in this league, and Tim will pick it up in due time. He's a high upside player who just needs to find his stride despite this pretty massive misstep.
Tim’s 51 points in Week One is the lowest rookie debut of
all time. It’s also the second lowest Season debut of all time, only to be
beaten by…
12.) (LW #12) The Cheesecake Argument, 0-1 [40 PPG, .048 NPRP]
90, 91, 90, 100, 94. What do these numbers have in common?
No, it’s not from Lost. It’s not the combination to any
safe, or the powerball winner…that’s Corey’s points per game each season he’s
been in the league. They don’t look bad at all, but how about these?
7, 9, 9, 2, 7.
That’s Corey’s rank in PPG each season. 7/8, 9/10, 9/10,
2/12, 7/12. Without 2015’s 2nd place rankings, Corey has been in the
bottom half of the league Every. Single. Year.
I get after him every year, pivoting between “unlucky” and
“bad,” never sure where to stick my flag…but I never considered both.
I thought Corey drafted well this year. Obviously it’s only
Week One, but it looks like I was wrong. This man has the worst bench I’ve ever
seen. 3 useless running backs, a snake oil salesmen of a wide receiver, a flyer
rookie, and Eric Decker.
Then we get to his starting lineup, where he has somehow
rostered 2 Second-tier wide receivers, a Second-tier running back, and Buck
“Remember me from the last 3 years and how I wasn’t worth the hype?” Allen.
I'm not done.
If we drafted the way Corey wanted, he would have tanked
starting in Week 5 (When he was already 0-4) and wound up with the #1 pick at a
historic 0-13 record.
One of two things would have happened if that were the case:
He would have drafted David Johnson and would be mad at how unlucky he is, or
he would have drafted Le’Veon Bell and would be mad at how unlucky he is.
Corey could do anything and come out mad at how unlucky he
is.
But it comes down to this: Corey Hewett TANKED for a guy
that got subbed in in a blowout in an effort to keep the #1 back healthy. And
before you say “He’ll take over Danny Woodhead’s role,” keep in mind that this
guy was targeted ZERO times in the passing game.
“But Nick! I don’t want to gamble with some running back in
a committee!” – The Gambler
Well, you just signed up for EXACTLY that.
I literally cannot comprehend that thought process. You
don’t want something, so you go for the most literal definition of said thing? That’s
almost like saying “I’m sick of coming in dead last, so I’m going to keep
tanking.”
Oh wait.
T.O. disapproves
No comments:
Post a Comment