Shaggy’s Picks and Shenanigans Week 3

Dave! How did the whole Cobb/Witten thing play out for you? What’s that? Cobb scored 17 while Witten only put up 3? AND you benched Witten for Cobb!? Who could be shocked by that? Certainly not the person who ridiculed you for starting Witten over Cobb in the first place….

And what’s this about the blog being a “fickle bitch?” We shouldn’t guarantee games or make a “Lock of the Week?” Sure seemed to work out alright for me. I even texted curt, “Called it. Lock of the Week.” His response? “You got lucky.”

Alright Mr. Probation, how did I get lucky? Because AJ Green got hurt? Or because you forgot to check your lineup before the game? Let’s look at how you might have gotten lucky. If Murray didn’t play the best game of his career (don’t count on that happening again) and Kaep not giving the Bears the ball every other play the margin would be closer to 50 then 30. I don’t think that word means what you think it means (name that movie). While we’re on the movie topic, let’s get back to Star Wars. curt, with your inexplicable text to Nick last week and your misunderstanding of luck, you are making yourself out to be the Jar Jar Binks of our league. Is that too harsh curt? Prove me wrong in week 10.

Vote Sean Brown 2015 and I’ll force a new rule that states any owner who starts a clearly hurt player must shoot themselves in the foot with an airsoft gun. If you’re gonna shoot yourself in the foot in our league, you might as well do it in real life.

[Note: curt if you want to find out what luck is, read Nick’s blog)

Cobra Commanders @ Kessel Runners

It worked last week so why not this week? I’m gonna win. Mark it down as my LOCK OF THE WEEK. Is Seattle’s D for real? Or did the Chargers expose them as the average team they are? Does home field really matter? With almost the entire Denver team in this game, much depends on the answers to these questions.

Staff Infection @ Randy Savages

Both these teams are coming off disappointing losses. Both (probably) want to win this week. I’m gonna pick the team that actually starts a full roster. Hey Nick I forgot to start Kaep, will you put him in for me?

Hakka Flocka Flame @ I Do L.T.P.A. (Love to Party Absurdly)

Battle of the Condo huh? Does the winner get their own room? Or the rights to the covered parking spot for a week? Or has to do the dishes for a week? If not, I’m not really interested in this so called “battle.” With five players listed as questionable or out and another suspended Matt’s in a little trouble this week. Especially with three QBs on the roster. But hey, maybe Gio will prove he’s a first round talent?

Rank This @ 53 Fire

The Dads face off here. This is one of those coin toss games for me (I don’t have the dartboard set up yet). If AP plays, I’m going with Bobby B. If not, Dave wins.

Luck has It @ #FreeJoshGordon

Except Luck does not have it. At least through two games of the season. Cheryl, I picked you to win last week and you let me down. On the other hand, I also picked Nick to win and he didn’t let me down. So I’m picking Nick again.

Remember: Vote Sean Brown 2015 and I’ll personally change curt’s team name to Jar Jar Probation at least three times a week.

Shaggy's Picks and Shenanigans - Week Two

Ray Rice has been cut by the Ravens and suspended indefinitely.  I really haven’t seen much on this story.  It’s not on ESPN, the major news networks or social media.  So, I just wanted to make sure that everyone here knew.

“Shaggy’s Picks” is gonna have a new look for the 2014-15 season.  I’m not going to be picking NFL matchups anymore.  Instead, I’ll be randomly picking our fantasy matchups.  

This will involve a lot of coin flipping, some dart throwing and even some eeny meeny miney mo.

There is also a zero per cent chance that this blog will ever come out on a Monday.  I know I’m gonna catch huge amounts of flak for that but tough cookies.

Onto my picks:

Curtis, I’m going to beat you. This is my “lock of the week” and I don’t need to say anything else about it so I won’t.

53 Fire @ I Do L.T.P.A. (Love To Play Accounting)

Pops has already made his 739^th QB change of the season, reverting to Robert Griffin the Turd, as well as benching Nick’s man crush, Victor Cruz, in favor of Mike Wallace.  The key to this game is Corey’s Curse.  With five player’s already on the injury report, including his starting QB, RB, and both WRs, Corey is still favored by five points. If at least two of those guys play on Sunday, I’ve got Corey winning.

#FreeJoshGordon @ Randy Savages

Quick sidenote here. I woke up Monday morning up on Nick by 9 and down in my other league by 46 with Stafford and Megatron to go. I knew there was no way Nick’s three remaining players would fail to put up 9 but I had no idea that Megatron and Stafford would combine for 69. So at least I came away with one W. Anyway, Will is gonna start 0-2. Sorry bud.

Luck Has It @ Hakka Flocka Flame

James Jones? Really? # 1 on ESPN’s Top 10 plays of the weekend.  Sneaky, sneaky Cheryl. This one comes down to who gets the touchdowns. Hint: score more points than the other team and you win. Cheryl has Julio and Matt’s got Roddy.  Both guys are gonna get looks but who comes down with the TD grab? I think Andre Johnson is going look 10 years younger. If you replaced Houston’s receivers with clones of Tina, the Raiders still wouldn’t be able to cover anything. Cheryl in a close one.

Cobra Commanders @ Rank This

As much as I hate Peyton right now for throwing all three of his TDs to the wrong Thomas and then doing NOTHING in the second half, Peyton and Brees and are going to cancel each other out. If Lacy plays he cancels out Lynch. The rest of it is a crapshoot. Dave, I have no idea why you are starting Gronk and Witten with Cobb on the bench. And for that reason alone I’m picking Mom to win. Oh, by the way, Ray Rice got cut.

Shaggy’s Revised Rankings and Shenanigans

Last year saw the number ten ranked team, Mr. Dave Smith, win the Championship and the number one ranked team, yours truly, finish with a winning record but miss the playoffs.  What does this tell me about preseason rankings? Shenanigans. Total and utter horse hockey.  Yes, I found Nick’s preseason rankings amusing and a few times they really did make me laugh out loud.  But as a basis to judge the season on? Ehhhhhh whatever.  So here are my preseason rankings:

1. Kessel Runners starting lineup

2. Kessel Runners bench

3. Whatever waiver claims the Kessel Runners pick up.

Cocky enough for you Nick?

Ok, in all seriousness, Nick uses a great tool to rank the teams.  But he outsources.  I’m gonna take a completely different approach to ranking the teams.  This approach is also somewhat biased, more on that in a bit though. 

PROJECTED POINTS. What do they mean? Does any of us know? How often do you start a guy because ESPN says he has more projected points then someone else? How often do you ignore them? And where do they come from? Sometimes they can be so far off I think someone has a giant dartboard somewhere….  Someone must think that they matter because ESPN kindly includes them with every player.

To give the rankings a different spin, I looked at each team’s projected point totals and ranked them in that order.  Based on projected point totals alone, I’m going to identify some MVPs, Busts, Good Values and Bad Values.  MVPs are guys who have the highest projected point totals for a team, Busts are lowest.  Good Value players are guys who have higher projected point totals then guys going around them and Bad Value guys are opposite. 

Now for the bias.  Quarterbacks score the most amount of points.  The more Quarterbacks that you have, the higher your total projected points will be.  Quarterbacks, Kickers and Defenses will be left out of individual player discussion.

Remember these are PROJECTED point totals.  These will become more accurate as the season progresses and rosters shake down due to injuries, cuts, etc.

#1 Cobra Commanders, 2,671 Total Projected Points (TPP)

Besides Peyton I thought this was a totally uninspiring team.  And then I looked at the numbers.  Granted, ESPN thinks Brady will bounce back. Those two guys make up for 629 of the Commanders points. A high overall average, plus an extra kicker, give this team the highest projected point total of the season. Can Lynch beast mode to 229? Did Peyton sell his soul to Papa John or just his fivehead? Only time will tell.

MVP: Marshawn Lynch, 229 Total Points (TP) 

Busts: Jeremy Hill, 92 TP and Steve Smith 95 TP 

Good Value: Marshawn Lynch, 229 TP, 2^nd Round Average (excluding QB, K, D): 190

Bad Value: Darren Sproles 96 TP 10^th Round Average: 115

#2 Rank This, 2,586 TPP

How’s this for a ranking Mr. Smith? Feel better know? Thinking about changing the team name up? I understand you caught an absurd amount of flak last year. But just take a gander at the team that was ranked ahead of you.  That’s right. Darren Sproles was the Commander’s worst value pick and that was in the TENTH ROUND. Can you see what the flak was based on now? Although some of these numbers look a little too optimistic for me, you’ve built the #2 team going into this season.  Let’s take a look:

MVP: Eddie Lacy, 214 TP  

Bust: Legarrette Blount, 62 and Jake Matthews 67  

Good Value: Ray Rice, 161 TP 6^th Round Average: 141  

Bad Value: Marques Colston, 124 TP, 8^th Round Average: 137  

Not no way, not no how: Trent Richardson, 170 TP

#3 53 Fire, 2,568 TPP

Well Pops, after knocking me out of the playoffs in year 1 and finishing dead last (according to Corey) last year, you’re in a prime position to make a comeback this year. Don’t let that first Cal win get to your head though, numbers can, and often do, lie. You could have taken any player you wanted and you didn’t screw it up. Your team was the hardest to figure out because you’ve made so many waiver moves already.

MVP: Adrian Peterson, 250 TP, the most of any none QB

Bust: You dropped Tyler Eifert, so I didn’t look. The guy you replaced him with? The guy that gets more concussions then Wes Welker! Zach Miller, 45 TP. Why? Have you seen “Not Another Teen Movie?” The one where they count down how many concussions a player has left on the scoreboard… That’s Zach Miller.  One or two and he’s Patient Zero of the Zombie Apocalypse. Straight up ripping his helmet off and trying to eat people on the field.  I just hope Brady is first.

Good Value: Mike Wallace 131 TP, 11^th Round Average: 87

Bad Value: Victor Cruz 144 TP, 4^th Round Average: 160

#4 Hakka Flocka Flame. 2,671 TTP

Quarterbacks score you the most points.  So you would think that the only team with three QBs would have the most projected points, right? Not so fast there. When your first round pick has the lowest total projected points it tends to bring your score down a bit.  But Matt has taken enough heat over the Gio pick.

MVP: Doug Martin 200 TP.  (I laughed while typing that)

Bust: Teddy Bridgewater 72 TP

Good Value: Ryan Matthews 163 TP, 6^th Round Average 141

Bad Value: Roddy White 140 TP, 5^th Round Average 154

#5 Luck Has It 2,410 TTP

What a couple Cheryl and Dave make. He’s got the wife beater, she’s got the racist. For the first two rounds I thought Cheryl was going straight by the book…. And then her Luck ran out. It’s too easy to make bad puns about him. 

MVP: Matt Forte 235 TP

Bust: Ahmad Bradshaw 50 TP

Good Value: Andre Johnson 178 TP, 6^th Round Average 141

Bad Value: Lamar Miller 82, 7^th Round Average 151

#6 Staff Infection 2,396 TPP

Curt, you kept me out of the playoffs on a tiebreaker last year. Yes that means you beat me fair and square one week but that doesn’t help me. I know Nick already ranted about DeMarco, but I’m gonna have to lay into you here.  You and Matt are the only two teams whose first round picks aren’t supposed to score more than 200 points.  Even if you had reversed the order and taken AJ Green first, I still can’t believe you picked Murray that early.

MVP: AJ Green 199 TPP (First team where it’s not a running back)

Bust: Demarco…. Na it’s James White at 39 TP

Good Value: Ruben Randle 95 TP, 15^th Round Average: 72

Bad Value: DeMarco Murray: 190 TP, 1^st Round Average: 227

#7 Randy Savages 2,394 TPP

This team really doesn’t look too bad on paper, why is it so low on the…. Randy freakin Moss. Zero projected points. Will if you had drafted Matt Shaub, you’d be in front of Curt and Cheryl. But a third QB would set you up for the kind of ribbing Matt gets. So drop this bum already. He plays when he wants to play and he clearly doesn’t want to play anymore.

MVP: Jamal Charles: 244 TP

Bust: Moss 0 TP and Tavon Austin at 84 TP

Good Value: Steven Jackson 149 TP, 8^th Round Average: 132

Bad Value: Uhhh the worst I could find is DeSean Jackson 147 TP, 5^th Round Average 154

#8 #FreeJoshGordon

Get over it. He didn’t beat his wife, he didn’t wave a gun around LAX, but he broke a set of written rules. What would you do Commish? Let him slide? Then you’d be setting a precedent and would have to let every guy who smokes slide. Gordon’s big fat 0 projected points keeps you in the eighth spot.

MVP: Megatron 236 TP

Bust: Gordon and Carlos Hyde 73 TP

Good Value: Joique Bell 160 TP, 7^th Round Average: 138

Bad Value: Brandin Cooks 89 TP, 9^th Round Average 121

#9 Kessel Runners 2,306 TPP

Yikes, I guess drafting four straight running backs and six overall wasn’t the greatest idea.  Oh well, still happy with the team and there’s no possible way I’m finishing in 9^th.  I’m gonna play the cocky card all year.

MVP: Demarius Thomas 216 TP

Bust: Cristian Michael 51 TP

Best Value: Emmanuel Sanders 139 TP 9^th Round Average: 104

Bad Value: Percy Harvin 127 TP, 6^th Round Average: 145

#10 I Do L.T.P.A.

“All wrapped up.” I don’t need to see more but I will.  I’ve seen this team somewhere before. Somewhere. That’s right, it’s the same strategy I used last year. Grab all the big name handcuffs and hope one of them comes through.  It’s a bold strategy, Cotton. The problem is that if none of them come through you’re stuck with at least five guys who fail to put up 100 points. Let’s see if it pays off better for Corey this year.

MVP: Shady 242 TP

Bust: D. Freeman 54 TP

Good Value: Marcus Wheaton 90 TP 15^th Round Average: 73

Bad Value: My boy MJD 119 TP, 6^th Round Average: 146

Shaggy's Notes - Week 14

      The regular season ends tonight.  I’m sure there will be a lot of eyes glued to the Saints-Seahawks game tonight.  I’ve got the Saints.  I just hope that Brees throws less than three TDs and they all go to Graham and Thomas. 

      I’m doing something a little different this week now the season is over.  I’m not gonna make any picks for next week just yet.  Last time I wrote I mentioned something about the unpredictability of fantasy football.  So I went back and looked at every matchup for every week and found the highest scoring player on the bench for that week and the lowest active scoring player.  I left out team defenses and quarterbacks, unless the quarterback was the lowest scoring player that week.

      This list is not meant to be taken as a negative reflection on the team or the team owner.  I’m pretty sure everybody shows up at least once. 

Week 1

                Lowest Scoring Active: Will’s David Wilson: -3

                Highest Scoring Bench: Dave’s Anquan Boldin: 29

Week 2

                Lowest Scoring Active: Corey’s Randy Bullock: -1

Honorable Mentions: Nick’s Jared Cook: 1, Melinda’s Ray Rice: 1, Bob’s Eddie Lacy: 1, Will’s David Wilson: 1

                Highest Scoring Bench: Nick’s Steve Johnson: 19

Week 3

Lowest Scoring Active: Sean’s Dwayne Bowe 0, Nick’s Daryl Richardson 0, Will’s Hakeem Nicks 0, Bob’s CJ Spiller 0

Highest Scoring Bench: Nicks Antonio Brown 33

Week 4

Lowest Scoring Active: Bob’s Isiah Pead and Kyle Rudolph 0, Nicks Steve Johnson 0, Corey’s Tavon Austin 0, Curtis’ Brandon Myers and Ahmad Bradshaw 0

Highest Scoring Bench: Curtis’ Greg Jennings 26

Week 5

                Lowest Scoring Active: Bob’s Calvin Johnson 0

                Highest Scoring Bench: Cheryl’s TY Hilton 33

                                Honorable Mention: Curtis’ Alshon Jeffery 30

Week 6

Lowest Scoring Active: Sean’s Cecil Shorts and Jimmy Graham 0, Nick’s Danny Amendola 0, Curtis’ Brandon Myers 0

Highest Scoring Bench: Bob’s Larry Fitzgerald 22, Corey’s Stevan Ridley 22

Week 7

                Lowest Scoring Active: Dave’s Brandon Jacobs and Blair Walsh 0

Honorable Mentions: Curtis’ Doug Baldwin 1, Bob’s CJ Spiller 1, Corey’s Trent Richardson 1, Matt’s Arian Foster 1

                Highest Scoring Bench: Cheryl’s Jacquizz Rogers 17

Week 8

Lowest Scoring Active: Matt’s Mike Vick -1

Honorable Mentions: Nick’s Kenbrell Thompkins 0, Melinda’s Jeff Cumberland 0, Dave’s Darren Sproles 0

                Highest Scoring Bench: Bob’s Terrance Williams 17

Week 9

Lowest Scoring Active: Cheryl’s Nate Washington 0, Melinda’s Mike James 0, Dave’s Darren Sproles 0, Nick’s Jordan Cameron 0

Highest Scoring Bench: Bob’s Keenan Allen 20, Nick’s Danny Amendola 20

Week 10

                Lowest Scoring Active: Bob’s Jake Locker -3

Honorable Mentions: Sean’s Lamar Miller 0, Dave’s Vernon Davis 0, Matt’s Adam Vinatieri 0. Curtis’ Jamaal Charles and Rob Gronkowski were both on bye and started

Highest Scoring Bench: Dave’s Darren Sproles 18, Melinda’s Andre Brown 18, Nick’s Golden Tate 18, Will’s Kenny Stills 18

Week 11

                Lowest Scoring Active: Sean’s DeAndre Hopkins 0, Curtis’ Greg Jennings 0, Cheryl’s AJ Green 0

                Highest Scoring Bench: Curtis’ Josh Gordon 25

Week 12

Lowest Scoring Active: Nick’s Victor Cruz 0, Bob’s Jericho Crotchery 0, Matt’s Julius Thomas 0, Curtis’ Eric Decker 0

Highest Scoring Bench: Corey’s Mike Wallace 25

Week 13 (isn’t done yet, but this is before the Monday night game)
                Lowest Scoring Active: Dave’s Jarrett Boykin 0

                Highest Scoring Bench: Bob’s CJ Spiller

Shaggy's Picks - Week Twelve

“Your word is Cow.”

      Cow. C-0-W-E-I-E-I-Oh how I hate that commercial.  I don’t understand how someone could like that commercial…. Unless they run the spelling bee or something.

      But what really drives me crazy.  What drives me off the wall insane on Sundays is the total unpredictability of fantasy.  It happens to someone every week.  We check the rankings, the injury reports, the matchups, everything.  Then what happens? Someone on the bench goes off, while the guy we started in front of him flames out.  In his New York Times Best Selling Book, Fantasy Life, Matthew Berry says, “Seeing a guy go off while sitting on your bench and the bum you started is doing nothing? Another level of cruel.  Because you realize it’s not the player’s fault, it’s YOURS.”  Two pages later he reveals this tidbit, “this is as good a piece of fantasy advice as you’ll ever hear: ask yourself what is the most likely to happen, play the odds that give yourself the most likely chance to win, and let the chips fall where they may.”  There’s two weeks left before the fantasy playoffs start.  Depending on where you are in the race, you might wanna bet bigger than those at the top of the pack.  Throw those chips in and don’t worry about it until all the cards are dealt.

      Speaking of the playoffs and unpredictability… how many so-called experts totally blew their teams that are “playoff locks?” Texans and Falcons were actually favored by some to be in the Super Bowl (My pick was Broncos-Falcons but oh well, I’m not an expert).  Since the merger, the Chiefs are the first team to have the worst record one season and go 9-0 the next. And the Raiders are only one game back from the second AFC wildcard spot.

My Pick(s):

• Matt McGloin leads the Raiders overs the Titans.